The Nutty Spectacle: January 6th, 2024.
Ukraine Goes Quiet Over New Drones - Russia Remains World's Foremost Perennial Fuckup.
Welcome to the Nutty Spectacle! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Today’s mood? Anticipation.
The Kremlin continues to ineffectually bash its skull against the brick wall that is Avdiivka; Zaporizhya is quiet; and Krynky belongs to Ukraine.
But I can’t help but feel like Ukraine is up to something. They’re about as silent as an army can get these days, but a RF milblogger popped up to mention Ukraine’s “reinforcing” their presence in Krynky. If that’s the case then Russia isn’t doing much to stop them...nothing concerted at any rate. Everything I’m seeing is flailing and ineffectual.
I’m still looking for news of the Russian air force operating in Kherson Oblast or Zaporizhya, so if anyone comes across a relevant tidbit, please shoot it my way.
On the information front, Anders Puck Nielson came out with a new video. He goes into the ‘why’ of Russia’s decision to chuck missiles at Ukraine’s cities. The TLDR? Sometimes shooting civilians is the point, but more likely than not it’s accidental. Collateral damage tends to happen when people shoot missiles at each other. Who knew?
The take away is that Russia switched up their strategy from last winter in two important ways:
The Kremlin’s attacks are less frequent yet come in much larger waves. The goal is to overwhelm Ukraine’s air defense.
The Kremlin’s objective this year is to damage Ukraine’s fledgling defense industry. Factories tend to be where the people are, so when Putin fires off a cruise missile or two and hits a school, it’s kind of like a consolation prize.
I still think this missile campaign is beyond dumb, mostly because of how much it costs to sustain. These are multimillion dollar missiles, and Ukraine shoots down 70% of them. At minimum, Russia needs to fire three missiles to hit one target, which means whatever they’re targeting needs to cost three times as much as the missile for it to be worth Russia’s time.
You want an example? A KH-101 costs an estimated $13 million to produce, meaning the Kremlin needs to deal at least $39 million worth of damage. Unless they’re sniping Patriot systems and F-16s then I don’t see how this is worth their time.
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Russian targets in occupied Crimea and Krasnodar Krai on the night of January 4 to 5.
This, however? Definitely worth it.
Hard to say by how much, though. Ukraine isn’t commenting, so Russia fills the vacuum by saying they’re shooting down everything (because of course they would). I think this is day three of rear Ukrainian strikes? Four? Either way, they’ve proven they can manufacture these drones at scale.
While It’s impossible for us to evaluate the effectiveness of Ukraine’s new drones without more information, when Zaluzhnyi fails to get results he doesn’t usually carry on. We all saw that ‘U-turn’ over the summer when Ukraine ran face-first into Zaporizhya and switched up their gameplan on the fly. Wasting resources isn’t in his nature. Assuming a consistent pattern of behavior, I feel confident the Kremlin is overstating its knock-down rate.
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) will convene on January 10 and discuss Russia’s reported use of North Korean ballistic missiles in Ukraine, a likely violation of UNSC resolutions.
Meanwhile Russia is thumbing its nose at the United Nations. Sanctions against North Korea were one of the few things the UNSC managed to agree on over its seventy-year existence. The fact that Russia can violate its dictates with impunity only further emphasizes the desperate need for reform.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: we need a world government. We need a mechanism to collectively respond to the many, many issues facing our species.
The Moscow Arbitration Court ordered Google to unblock four YouTube channels belonging to Russian state-affiliated channel 5TV on January 5, likely as part of an ongoing effort to consolidate control over the Russian information space ahead of the March presidential elections.
Alphabet remaining active in Russia is one of commercial activities I endorse. Until LLMs replace search engines, Google remains the gatekeeper to the internet, so wherever it operates the Free World retains influence. And that’s why Russia’s slapping Alphabet with so many fines and demands. They want Google gone. They’ve got their own little domestic search engine and hope to seize absolute control over the Russian people’s access to information.
Is it fucked up? Definitely. And I think Alphabet should force the Kremlin to be the bad guy. If Putin wants Google out he can chuck ‘em out. Until then Alphabet should thumb its nose at the Kremlin. I encourage them to everything they can to dribble a little truth into the cesspool of lies swirling around the Russian information space.
Russian forces may intensify efforts to capture Kupyansk, Kharkiv Oblast, in the coming weeks and have a grouping of forces in the area that appears to be less degraded than Russian groupings responsible for offensive efforts elsewhere in eastern Ukraine.
Look at this as both an opportunity and a threat.
On the one hand, the number I saw bandied about the ISW was something like 100k Russian soldiers. That’s a lot of sunflowers. The Kremlin’s forcing freshly constituted units back to the front, which means these units are likely underequipped, under trained, and under manned. They’re still a significant threat and this underscores the horrifying reality of this war: Russia is a huge country with a lot of resources. Incompetence and inefficiency only go so far.
On the other, Ukraine mentioned a month or so ago they planned to “deprioritize” this area of the front. Before they did, however, they intended to build an enormous defensive line, so likely this area of the front is well fortified. Attacking Kupyansk will be at least as expensive and difficult as attacking Avdiivka.
Good luck, Putin. You’re going to need it.
The opportunity is that Kup'yans'k is about as far away from Kherson as you can get it while remaining in Ukraine. Anybody put there will not be able to reposition to defend against a Ukrainian attack across the Dnipro. Russia is locking itself into a high-risk low-reward position while simultaneously leaving their entire southern front exposed. Sending a fifth wave into Avdiivka would make more sense than a third offensive to take Kup’yans’k.
International sanctions are reportedly impeding Russia’s Su-34 aircraft production.
Ha!
Every jet Ukraine destroys is a permanent loss to the Russian Empire. Keep it up, you stubborn bastards.
Russia continues efforts to integrate education systems in occupied Ukraine and expand education programs aimed at eliminating Ukrainian identity in occupied territories.
Cultural genocide, ladies and gentlemen. Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this to an end.
'Q’s For the Community:
The internet is a festering cesspool of intellectual excrement...but some of you guys are alright. I’d like to know who those “okay” people are in your estimation. I’m putting together a list of vetted sources for easy reference going forward. Essentially, I’m asking you for a list of people you trust for news. My plan is to look into their post history, videos, and background—go full creepy stalker—and publicly post the results. My goal is to make it easy for you to determine Truth. Please share links to people you trust for news below in the comments.
What are your thoughts on Nielson’s video?
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