The Peanut Gallery: America Wants Vengeance, But Let's Make it Productive - Bomb Iran's Shahed Factories.
January 29, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! And we're just going to ignore the fact that I fucked up on the date yesterday.
Please remember that I know nothing.
The Iranian regime falsely claimed that Iran had no role in the January 28 one-way drone attack that killed three US servicemembers in northeastern Jordan.
I kept my comments yesterday minimal because the information was still pouring in. It’s been about a day and now we know a lot more.
First, we figured out how Iran pulled off their little trick, and I gots to give ‘em credit, it was damn clever. Iran’s proxies shadowed an American drone on its way back to base, meaning our SAM systems detected one target instead of two. Now that we know how they did it, however, we can make certain we never fall for the same gimmick twice. That’ll be up to the US DoD to figure out.
Second, Western media actually did its fucking job and reported Iran as the responsible party, which is important because social media today was disgusting. The bots, the justifications, the excuses, the what-aboutisms--they were all over the place and the sight made me sick. When everything’s stabilized and makes sense again, we need to come together as a species and hash out some rules regarding information war. Democracy can’t exist in this environment.
And third, I think Beau had the best take. He’s right in that the solution is decapacitation, but I think he underplays the importance of immediate reprisal. Every second that passes lengthens the distance between the event and our response. The longer that time period stretches, the more tenuous the connection, and it isn’t Iran we need to dissuade; it’s everyone else.
Yeah, eventually the US will slam a missile into some IRGC command center or something, but if it doesn’t happen in the next week or so then what will message will that send to the Houthis? To Hezbollah? To the African juntas? Iran will understand, that much is guaranteed, but we also need to make our response unambiguous lest we allow the stupid and brutal to draw the wrong conclusions. It’s not the nation states that I’m concerned about—it's the war lords. The more confident they feel, the more brush fires they’ll start, and the more likely this conflagration will smolder out of control.
Escalate to deescalate. It’s a well-worn doctrine.
In my opinion Biden needs to nut-up and do his fuckin’ job. I don’t want to be in the Middle East either, but unless we want to reexperience the geopolitical shitshow that was the Afghani withdrawal, we need to ensure any future movements happen on our terms. That means reminding everyone now that the US President is the only one who decides where our military finds itself.
Blow up the Shahed manufacturing facilities. Do it at night to avoid civilians. Announce the attack beforehand—what the fuck is Iran going to do? Stop us? Please.
ISW’s been half-assing their reports lately and it’s pissing me off. How am I supposed to keep people interested in the Russo-Ukraine War if they give me nothing to work with? Stingy bastards.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) denied rumors about the purported resignation or dismissal of Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi on January 29.
This is it, huh? This is my headline? A rumor wrapped in a Kremlin psy-op? I need another drink.
To begin, Ukraine says this whole story is bullshit, and considering the story hinges upon a decision by Ukraine, I’m inclined to believe them. Removing Zaluzhnyi would mean a drastic change in Ukraine’s plan for the future of the war, which does not seem at all likely. Zaluzhnyi is a defensive minded general and any replacement would mean installation of one who’s suicidally aggressive, which isn’t what this war demands. It’d be like installing Colonel Custer as overall entente command halfway through World War One.
We have this rumor thanks to a Ukrainian People’s Deputy Oleksii Honcharenko, essentially a mid-tier politician. Ukraine has about 450 of them, and when you’ve got 450 of anything, one or two of that number is bound to broken or bonkers. And, quite frankly, I don’t see why Honcharenko would know this information. He seems primarily wrapped up in immigration. Nothing in his Wikipedia screams “Defense Circles!”
Now the Kremlin is amplifying this rumor because for months now they’ve attempted to sow discord between Zelenskyy and Zaluzhnyi. This story plays right into their little gimmick. “Oh! Secret firing! But why?!!!” That’s what they want everyone to be asking themselves. The Kremlin wants as little attention paid to their problems as possible (I see that information blackout, mother fuckers.)
Until Kyiv announces something officially, it’s not real.
Russia may be retooling aspects of its air defense umbrella in deep rear areas amid continued Ukrainian drone strikes within Russia.
How deep are we talking here? The Kremlin released footage of a successful downing of a Ukrainian drone today on its way to one of their refineries. They made a big hullabaloo about it, which...great? Just as planned? Because if the Kremlin has covered their fossil fuel refineries in AA, then that means they’re going to have a hard time keeping SAM coverage coherent throughout Ukraine. Exertion of strength in one place always means weakness somewhere else.
Russia appears to be fueling and seizing on neo-imperialist and nationalist sentiments in Europe in order to drive wedges between Ukraine and its western neighbors.
That’s where all these weird partitioning stories that keep popping up stem from. Romania apparently wants Odessa or something, and Hungary gets West Ukraine—it’s essentially Putin promising portions of Ukraine to nationalists to encourage their buy-in and support. And considering the prerequisite to become a neonationalist is a stunted sense of empathy, these people are slobbering all over Putin’s offer.
Putin’s making a mistake, though. The scarier he makes himself, the closer we draw together. The Free World isn’t like the Russian people, we aren’t beaten down and hopeless...because we know we can do better. The West holds itself to an impossible standard, not because we think we can obtain it, but because we know we must try. The conversations we have now, on this website, are only unique in medium. The substance? I guarantee that’s unchanged.
They say history repeats, and I’d say I agree. Every generation there is a tyrant. Every generation there are those who would rather cower and hide, deny and exploit. And every generation we must remind ourselves why we cherish Liberty, lest we forget her value.
Russian and Ukrainian sources continued to disagree over the status of Tabaivka (southeast of Kupyansk) on January 29. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that elements of the Russian Western Grouping of Forces captured Tabaivka, and many Russian milbloggers amplified this claim.[25] ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation of the purported Russian capture of Tabaivka,
The great Kupyansk Offensive is apparently reduced to playing tug-of-war over a small settlement along a highway. Maybe Russia takes it. Woopie. Then there’s another behind that, and another behind that, and another behind that...all the way to Kyiv.
Other than that, everything’s quiet...relatively speaking.
Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko confirmed that Russian authorities have deported over 2,100 Ukrainians, including 500 children, to Russia for medical reasons in 2023.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this to an end.
'Q’ For the Community:
Now that Russia has repositioned its air defense shield, where do you think Ukraine will hit next?
Join the conversation over on /r/TheNuttySpectacle.
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