The Peanut Gallery: Avdiivka Under Siege - Ukraine Endures.
February 7, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! I have come the belated realization that it is no longer January.
Please remember that I know nothing.
I really need to stop writing so definitively. It’s a bad habit.
Republicans this week killed a border security bill that a small bipartisan group of senators spent months negotiating after House Republicans telegraphed that their conference — and by extension, the far-right base led by former president Donald Trump — would not support the bill.
Once upon a time I might have understood the motivations of the MAGA folks, but now? Hell no. Double no. I cannot comprehend what drives the traitors in the House of Representatives. Their motivations are opaque and nonsensical because they do not share our incentives. Something else drives them. Fear? Maybe. Greed? Definitely.
Sin, when you get right down to it, is a manifestation of collective morality, and typically we all agree that shitty behavior is shitty behavior. We do not harm others because we empathize with their struggles, because those struggles are our struggles.
I have lost a loved one. You have lost a loved one. Together we share the concept of grief. Psychopaths do not share that mutual understanding; they are mentally incapable of empathy.
Do you want to know the Secret? The core concept which makes society function? Then understand Game Theory. No I’m serious--that twenty-seven-minute YouTube video is absolutely critical for your comprehension of the world. Watch it.
Example: your dog shits on the neighbor’s lawn, but you’re out of bags. It’s the middle of the night. Nobody is around. Do you pick it up with a leaf, or just leave it to fester?
What do you do? Do you cooperate? Or do you defect? Those two questions worm their way into every decision we make. How we decide these questions, individually, is the fundamental root of moral philosophy. It is what separates ‘Right’ from ‘Wrong.’
No, folks. It’s not God who decides that. We do. Humanity. The most outspoken of us declare morality, either through argument or divinity, and for those with empathy and upbringing these morals become absolute. Right and wrong are defined, either by God or our neighbors, and by common agreement we have slowly come to favor ‘cooperate’.
But there are those who practice moral relativism, a morality centered upon an individual’s benefit. They are animals, not truly human as I would define it, for when one lacks empathy they lack outside perception. <----- That is why Putin will lose this war. He is forever locked in an eternal monologue with himself, the result of which can only ever be, “How does this benefit me?” There is no higher purpose because there can be no higher purpose. The Self is everything. Psychopaths always choose to defect, for they are alone in a way that most humans cannot comprehend.
Unfortunately, psychopathy is also a spectrum. Human society is, in large part, a structure of alternating incentive systems, all of which devote themselves towards ensuring enough people choose to cooperate. I don’t care when one dog shits on my lawn. I care when thirty dogs do it. Our laws, our very governmental systems, they are groups of people “encouraging” cooperation, either through incentive or command. Rules suck, so we must institute as few as possible, and usually only when something breaks.
Something is breaking now in Congress. I’m really looking forward to seeing how we fix it this time.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated that Russian forces have reached the northern part of a gardening partnership on Zaliznychnyi Lane.
Everything coming out of Avdiivka is bad news. South-east Ukraine is still putting out an incursion from a sewer pipe, and the north is a literal dumpster fire (Russia’s shooting off thermobaric rounds a short distance from the scrap heap). Aviation is active, significantly—honestly there’s just a bunch of shit blowing up all over the place. My heart goes out to the poor bastards holding the line. Good luck, lads.
To be honest, there is a chance Ukraine yields the city. They’ve demonstrated a preference for preservation of life in the past, and the whispers of artillery munition shortages in the area are near constant. The hardest hammer blow appears centered on Avdiivka’s spine. If it cracks, Ukraine could lose connection to the troops posted in Avdiivka’s south. That would be deeply problematic as there’s a good many of them down there.
Honestly the best thing you can do for Ukraine is to call up and badger a US Congressman. And no, you don’t have to be American to do it!
Russian forces conducted the second largest combined drone and missile strike of 2024 on the morning of February 7. The February 7 strike package is emblematic of the constant air domain offense-defense innovation-adaptation race in which Russia and Ukraine are engaged.
Let’s check the scoreboard!
Shahed 136/131 drones: 75% shot down (15 out of 20)
Kh-101/555/55 cruise missiles: ~89.7% shot down (26 out of 29)
Kh-22 cruise missiles: 0% shot down (0 out of 4)
Kalibr cruise missiles: 100% shot down (3 out of 3)
Iskander-M ballistic missiles: 0% shot down (0 out of 3)
S-300 surface-to-air missiles: 0% shot down (0 out of 5)
Ukraine knocked down forty-four ordinances out sixty-four total today, giving them a 68.75% score. Roughly par. Quite frankly it’s an incredible achievement considering this strike package was the second largest of the war.
Let’s see...it was right around New Years when Russia fired off their big two-fer in tantrum over Ukraine’s detonation of their ship. It’s been a bit since then, and generally once you start shooting you don’t want to stop, meaning there’s a good likelyhood that at least one of the above is indicative of the Kremlin’s ~38 day production figures.
Russia targeted Kyiv City during the February 7 strike for the third time thus far in 2024, notably coinciding with EU High Commissioner Josep Borrell’s visit to Kyiv.
Putin is doing this shit in full view of the world. All of it. He is not discouraging support for Ukraine by sucker-punching Kyiv apartments, he’s encouraging it. Putin is providing a daily reminder to all of us that he needs to be stopped.
Yandex NV — the Dutch holding company of Russian internet technology company Yandex — announced that it will sell all of its Russian assets for 475 billion rubles (about $5.2 billion) to a purchasing consortium consisting of five Russian companies.
Anyone in Russia reading this ought to beware: the Kremlin is tightening your noose.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated on February 7 that Russia is mobilizing citizens from Syria who come to Russia under the guise of security guard jobs at oil refineries.
The good news is that Serbia has a new export product: Fascist Sympathizers. The bad news (for the sympathizers) is that Putin’s so desperate for people that he’s press-ganging foreign contractors, folks hired to stand watch over the smoldering ruins of his oil sector. These folks take a glitzy contract promising rural guard work, board a plane and pop a Benadryl, and wake up to find themselves in Storm-Z.
Do not trust the Kremlin. Putin is a liar. That is the moral of today’s issue.
Russian occupation authorities continue to militarize Ukrainian children and youth in occupied Ukraine.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this to an end. You can make a difference.
'Q’ For the Community:
What are your thoughts regarding Ukraine’s hold on Avdiivka?
Join the conversation over on /r/TheNuttySpectacle.
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