Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Today we’re chasing the White Rabbit.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Okay! I want to get something out of my head—something that’s been buzzing around in the conspiracy portion of my brain for weeks now. It’s absurd. There is the strong possibility that I might be suffering Hallucinogenic-Persisting Perception Disorder from all the Hopium I was huffing last Fall. But I’ve got a burning need to follow this delusion, so let's go.
What if we’re in the midst of an information operation? One orchestrated by the collective governments of NATO—one which seeks to make us think the situation in desperate so as to instigate support. As Sun Tzu said, “Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”
The Ukrainian military’s effective use of drones on the battlefield cannot fully mitigate Ukraine’s theater-wide shortage of critical munitions.
US European Command (EUCOM) Commander General Christopher Cavoli warned on April 10 that Russian forces currently have a five-to-one artillery advantage along the frontline – a statement consistent with Ukrainian officials’ reports – but that Russian forces could have a 10-to-1 artillery advantage “in a matter of weeks” if the United States continues to delay the provision of military aid to Ukraine.[7]
Here’s an insane pitch: what if that’s not the whole story? After all, the factories are still churning, Russians keep dying, and every month or so there seems to be some major Ukrainian funding package which somehow gets through at the last minute, like a God damn miracle. Last month it was the Czech plan. Yesterday we got word Estonia was putting something together. Once is happenstance; two is a pattern.
Y’all remember America's lend-lease program which expired “unused” last Fall? I always thought that was sort of strange. The US Armed Forces never lets an opportunity to spend bucketloads of taxpayer money go to waste; they would have been all over the $46.6 billion. Defense industry lobbyist would hammer on every Congressional door until their fists were bloody.
My stupid principle is simple: what if Biden let lend-lease to Ukraine expire unused in only a technical sense? What if the huge pot of money, the $46.6 billion, needed to find a home, so the accountants parked it in a series of short-term, extremely low interest bonds in NATO countries. These bonds are then collected and used as collateral to purchase munitions from the United States on credit, munitions we sold because now that lend-lease expired we need to do something with all the ammo and guns we collected in anticipation of $46.6 billion worth of loans to Ukraine.
The process goes:
Country One says they know a guy...but his stuff don’t come cheap.
Country Two asks if this has anything to do with the United States' bullshit drama.
Country One winks and says, “Maaaaaaaayyyybeeee.”
Country Two sighs and asks how much.
Country One names an absurd figure.
Countries Two through a bunch pool cash they just...happened to have lying around.
Boom. Ukraine gets her guns; the Republicans get an ass-whooping, and everyone gets a firm reminder of what’s at stake. Neat and pretty, wrapped up with a bow. The narrative practically writes itself.
Zelensky warned about the threat of a potential future Russian ground offensive operation targeting Kharkiv City, which would force Ukraine to reallocate some of its already-strained manpower and materiel capabilities away from other currently active and critical sectors of the front.
Everything Zelensky said is true. If Putin somehow musters enough soldiers to attack Kharkiv, then Ukraine will have to dedicate significant resources to hold that sector of the front. Limited resources introduce constraints.
Under the Underdog Hypothesis, Ukraine ceases to amplify their victories. Ukraine announces them, yes, but they don’t chest thump, no weeks and weeks of reruns.
Without pushback, the Kremlin’s information operation ‘wins’ and creates an oppressive, dystopic atmosphere. Putin’s narrative becomes all consuming; Putin’s perspective on the war drowns in the ocean of his own lies, and everyone pulls together to address the cause of our societal anxiety...because that’s how a healthy society operates.
But you know what’s funny? Every time a major military aid package is passed, it disappears. Vanishes. Poof. Czechs sent artillery ammo, what happened to that? What about the major packages passed by England? France? Germany? The ISW only reports on the desperation of the situation, not the results of our corrective efforts.
The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada considered and adopted provisions from Ukraine’s draft mobilization law on April 10 as part of an ongoing effort to increase the sustainability of Ukrainian mobilization over the long term.
In one line Ukraine complains about a lack of manpower to protect against phantom offensives into Kharkiv, then in the next they sign a bill lowering the mobilization age by two years. Corrective action to a problem taken, yet ISW fails to explore the possible battlefield implications. ISW doesn’t even mention how many soldiers Ukraine will raise from these changes. Today ISW mostly discussed the potential for future frontline rotations.
Many may be saying to themselves right around now, “Get to the damn point, Storyteller.”
Fine. If the US lend-lease worked as I outlined above, if that’s the source of these mysterious funds, then Ukraine is deliberately underplaying their hand. “To what extent?” is obviously the open question. Could be a little, could be a lot. Could be not at all and this whole hypothesis is bunk. Actually that's probably it.
I take these mental jaunts to explore a possibility. Oftentimes I am wrong, but the point here isn’t to be ‘correct’; it’s to ask ourselves “What if?” A critical component of critical thinking is the willingness to contemplate the absurd, to entertain the prospect long enough for its flaws to manifest. That’s what we did here today. Please do not take anything I brought up here as gospel. This was a thought experiment.
Ukrainian officials continue to warn that Russian forces are systematically and increasingly using chemical weapons and other likely-banned chemical substances in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Support Forces Command stated on April 5 that Ukrainian forces have recorded 371 cases of Russian forces using munitions containing chemical substances during the last month and 1,412 cases of Russian forces using chemical weapons between February 2023 and March 2024.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
What are your thoughts on the mental detour we took above? Was it useful?