The Peanut Gallery: Chechen Mercenaries Draw Firearms Against Russian Regular - Putin's Vassal Demonstrates Stunning Breach of Discipline.
January 22, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Russian forces continued intensified offensive operations southeast of Kupyansk on January 22 and reportedly advanced. Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces continued efforts to advance southwest of Krokhmalne near Berestove (25km southeast of Kupyansk).[35] A prominent Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger claimed on January 21 that Russian forces advanced four kilometers deep along a 1.5-kilometer-wide front towards the Kotlyarivka-Kyslivka line (20km southeast of Kupyansk and just north of the Krokhmalne area), although ISW has not yet observed visual confirmation of Russian gains towards Kotlyarivka.
Man, for Russia’s next “big offensive” it sures seems like most everyone is keeping quiet about Kup’yans’k, at least in the little information bubbles that I frequent. A four-kilometer advance is an enormous claim, especially when coupled with the twenty-some-odd vehicles Ukraine destroyed along the Russian border yesterday.
Geolocated footage posted on January 21 shows at least 20 new Russian vehicles losses following a recent unsuccessful assault on Terny.
These are geolocated losses—confirmed—which makes the Russian activity in the Kup’yans’k direction significant, even if they aren’t backing up their claimed advances with any evidence. And the spread of aggression seems to stretch all the way from Kup’yans’k to as far south as Silversk. That wide geographic area, coupled with the (admittedly elevated yet) subdued offensive action across the front, it’s no wonder that the narrative has shifted back to US politics, Ukraine’s Soviet-era artillery munition shortage, and the Kremlin’s big-scary stuffed bear.
To be clear, I still think that Ukraine will launch a major offensive in Kherson Oblast this winter. I’ll likely reevaluate this belief, along with my F-16 hypothesis, if we hit March without seeing evidence of either. Sorry, Carl Sagan, but eventually the absence of evidence becomes the evidence of absence. Maybe its opposite is true in space, but down here on Earth we need to live in the real world, at least when speaking of cabbages and kings.
March 17th, ladies and gentlemen. That’s when you get to laugh at me.
Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian personnel are increasingly refusing to conduct assaults in the Kherson direction because the Russian command prohibits Russian forces from using armored vehicle support during the attacks.
Also still no Russian aviation over Kherson Oblast.
You know, it’s possible that the weak showing of Russia’s offensive could be, at least in part, due to an overall lack of heavy equipment. We’ve seen Russia deploy armor to Krynky, yet despite Ukraine’s continued occupation of this beachhead, Russia is afraid of committing anything more valuable than expendable human lives. Read: brown people.
Kyrgyzstan issued a statement against Russia’s continued practice of targeting naturalized migrants as part of ongoing crypto-mobilization efforts.
Say it with me now: “Citizenship means nothing if the state can take it away.” <--- If someone is advocating for the opposite in your country, you are morally obligated to kick them in the groin.
Footage purportedly showing an altercation between a Russian soldier and Chechen “Akhmat-Vostok” forces in occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, reignited criticism of Chechen forces for their lack of contributions to Russian military operations in Ukraine.
Employee of the month, ladies and gentlemen.
It was a curious exchange, as the soldier was clearly attempting to apply policy as proscribed, but the Chechen mercenary was utterly unwilling to comply. Maybe it’s a new policy. Maybe the Chechens are AWOL and Melitipol command is unable to force them to comply. Either way, I have a few questions:
Why is a soldier working a checkpoint alone? Where was that kid’s backup?
Why was the first response to a request to comply to procedure to escalate to violence? In a functional military, that should have been worked out back at the station between calm parties, not rise to a physical altercation on a street corner.
Pistol. Out and cocked. That was a man who was prepared to use extreme force, so why was the escalation so radical against supposed friendlies?
Why didn’t the soldier open fire on the man brandishing a firearm in the middle of a direct refusal of a direct order?
Why do all the Chechens have beer bellies? I thought Muslims didn’t drink.
The nullification of all previous ‘permanent’ ongoing orders is rather extreme. Why was this necessary?
Why was a ‘Battalion Commander’ unaware of this change of protocol? And why did he refuse to comply?
Was the ‘Batalion Commander’ a Chechen or Russian MoD commander?
Why was a permanent order written on a piece of printer paper? That does not look legit.
An investigation by a Russian opposition outlet suggests that Russian elites may have accepted and internalized the domestic consequences of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
More like, “Realized they can’t do anything about it.” Any “elite” with sense got out of Russia years ago, and just keeps an address and a hired correspondent to deal with local shenanigans. Mostly they hang out in Dubai.
Russian officials and information space actors are attempting to further rhetorically justify Russia’s invasion of Ukraine by misrepresenting a decree that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed on January 22 concerning discrimination against ethnic Ukrainians in Russia. Zelensky’s decree does not establish any territorial demands upon Russia, as select Russian ultranationalists falsely claimed.
Honestly I think Zelensky was doing a bit of trolling with this one. He posted a map showing Ukraine’s ethnic borders, which more or less kicked Russia out of the Black Sea.
That said, announcements like this don’t happen in a vacuum. Zelensky didn’t wake up this morning and randomly decide to pull a funny. Rather, this is a negotiation tactic. Ukraine anchored an acceptable peace agreement as dictated by Ukraine. It involves justifiable Russian territorial concessions. So while, yeah, sure, it’s inflated, in a way Zelensky just set terms. This is what Ukraine will take if they completely defeat the Russian army and occupy Moscow. It’s up to the Kremlin to talk them down, because the alternative is this keeps going until Russia collapses. Putin’s choice. Either works for Ukraine.
This one’s a bit weird, as neither side announced the package’s value. I’m going to assume it’s big, but then I’m an optimist. I assume this because the Kremlin recently used EW warfare to cut off Polish GPS, which I doubt went over well with the Poles.
Either way, for a guy I just learned existed, I like this Donald Tusk fellow. He gets Storyteller’s “Raddest Dude of the Week” award. It comes with a lifetime supply of imaginary macaroni. Fuck yeah, Poland.
Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko confirmed that Russian authorities have deported over 2,100 Ukrainians, including 500 children, to Russia for medical reasons in 2023.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this to an end.
'Q’ For the Community:
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