The Peanut Gallery: Human Wave Tactics Shatter Russian Army Cohesion - Kremlin Begins Picking Up Pieces
March 21, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Today we’re going to talk about consequences.
Please remember that I know nothing.
The Russian military command appears to be forming reserves capable of sustaining ongoing offensive operations in Ukraine, but these reserves are unlikely to be able to function as cohesive large-scale penetration or exploitation formations this year. [...]
Large-scale Russian manpower losses are likely more significant than armored vehicle losses at this point in the war, particularly since Russian forces adjusted their tactics and transitioned to infantry-heavy ground attacks to conserve armored vehicles at the expense of greater manpower losses in fall 2023. [...]
It is unclear what kind of “strategic reserve” Russia is forming based on open-source reporting but known Russian manpower and material limitations suggest that Russia will likely not commit these “strategic reserves” as a cohesive formation to fighting in Ukraine but will instead use them as a manpower pool to replenish losses along the frontline. [...]
All I hear is, “My chain of command is a clusterfuck and I’m giving up on the pretense. Motorized infantry? Mobilized infantry? You say conscript, I say katsup. It’s all the same.”
Consequence One: Zapp Brannigan’s Tragic Aftermath
Look, I’m just going to spell it out for everyone, if an offensive can be described as ‘Human Wave’ then something has gone tragically wrong. Nothing is worth such a price. A meter of earth? A handful of dirt? What are they when compared to a father?
The consequence of treating one’s army like a beet in a blender, of course, is that eventually all the ad-hoc decisions sort of...become the army. Anyone with training died early. Anyone with gumption died heroically. And all that’s left now are the cruel and the cowardly. The prisoners don’t just run the asylum—they are the asylum.
Think about it. Recruitment, right? Where does the Kremlin primarily get their recruits?
Press-Ganged Immigrants.
Prisons—Political or Otherwise.
Actual, Legit Contract Volunteers ($$$).
As a result, the RF MoD’s command structure is a shot to hell. They’ve got VDV & Motorized Infantry serving alongside a rainbow of PMCs and intermixed units, all with varying levels of training. RF Colonel-General Teplinsky was bitchin’ about just this sort of thing a few months ago. Three months later and Ukraine still holds Krynky, so something tells me the problem was never fixed.
Now to be fair, Russia is clearly attempting to correct this problem. America’s Congressional intransigence handed them the chance to reorganize, and they’re taking it. They’re attempting to formalize the ad hoc reserve-based training system they’ve relied on for the last two years, one which led them to treat trainees like active reserves. By codifying standard system, the Kremlin can reinforce without performing a rotation. Existing units—on paper—become useful again, potentially enabling the re-establishment of a formal chain of command.
The British International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think tank reported on February 12 that Russia is likely able to sustain its current rate of vehicle losses (over 3,000 armored fighting vehicles annually and nearly 8,000 since February 2022) for at least two to three years by mainly reactivating vehicles from storage.
Unfortunately it seems the Kremlin has more than enough ancient tank husks left to restore for another two years. We’ll be here for quite some time yet.
On a brighter note, what they pull from the stockpile degrades in quality. Last I heard Russia was hurling T-55s at Robotyne They don’t stand up too well against modern drones, nor stingers, nor much else to be honest. If the Kremlin is resorting to T-55s today, then what they’ll pull out tomorrow will only be worse.
Russian offensive tactics will likely increasingly pressure Ukrainian defenses as long as delays in Western security assistance persist.
Overall materiel shortages will likely limit how Ukrainian forces can conduct effective defensive operations while also offering Russian forces flexibility in how to conduct offensive operations. Ukrainian ammunition shortages are reportedly forcing Ukraine to husband artillery shells, constraining Ukrainian artillery units from conducting effective counterbattery fire and likely preventing Ukrainian forces from relying on artillery fire to repel Russian assaults.
Consequence Two: War Sucks. What’s on TV?
Folks, this is our fault—America's, at any rate. Our Congressional dysfunction enabled Russia’s present momentum. At points along the line Russia is said to fire ten shells to every Ukrainian one. That discrepancy in firepower leads to the slow, creeping advances we’ve seen from the Russian side. They smash fortifications with artillery, throw human waves at Ukrainian lines, and repeat. It’s simple but effective, especially when your enemy can’t shoot back.
The West failed to take this war seriously. We failed to properly investment manufacturing; we failed to move decisively to curtail Putin’s ambitions; and we failed to give Ukraine what she needs to defend herself.
Fortunately mistakes can be corrected.
188 signatures—187 Democrats, 1 Republican.
Yep, you read that right.
Rep. Ken Buck (Colo.) became the first GOP member to sign the House Democrats’ aid discharge position on Thursday, just one day before he is set to retire from Congress.
The discharge petition, formally launched earlier this month by House Democrats, is an attempt to force consideration of a Senate-passed $95 million foreign aid package, which includes $60 billion in aid for Ukraine.
Buck bucks bucking branch of the Bible brotherhood. How’s that for a headline?
Ken’s retiring, so being the first to sign the petition is not much of a risk. His political career is done, but his sacrifice will offer cover for anyone else in the GOP who wish for a similar out. Hopefully many will decide to seize the opportunity.
Russian authorities continue to militarize children in occupied Ukraine as part of efforts to Russify Ukrainian children and create a resource for Russia’s future force generation needs. (..) Russian authorities have approved the creation of the Luhansk Cadet Corps under the Russian Investigative Committee (Russia’s rough equivalent to the American Federal Bureau of Investigation), possibly before 2025.[61] Lysohor stated that Luhansk Cadet Corps will teach Ukrainian children about pro-Russian concepts including their “debt” to the Russian “Motherland.”
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
A Republican jumped the fence! Will he be the last? What are your thoughts?
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