The Peanut Gallery: January 1, 2024
Kremlin Cheapens VDV "Elites" With Deployment of Trainees - Putin Conspicuously Fails to Mention Ukraine in New Years Speech.
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation. ISW is taking today off for New Years, so we’ll be covering yesterday’s release. It’s a short one.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Russian forces, particularly Russian airborne (VDV) Forces, are reportedly suffering heavy losses in simultaneous infantry-heavy Russian offensive operations on multiple fronts.
Put a gun to my head and scream, “Which historical empire do you respect the least?!” and you know what I’ll answer? The fucking Spanish.
Here’s why: they are the lottery winners of history. Those chucklefucks land in the New World, conquered it through a stunning combination of arrogance and incompetence, only to discover the place was packed to the rafters with gold and silver.
Hernan Cortes didn’t obey the physical laws of our universe; he existed purely within a realm of wrestling logic. Cortes torched his own boats, wandered into the middle of a heart-eating murder cult, became their god, and floated into Seville a year and change later with enough cash to kickstart humanity’s second case of hyperinflation, the first being when Mansa Musa went for a walk.
And what did the Spanish Empire do with all that wealth? Invaded England, twice (both failures), and generally faffed about. Within fifty years of Cortes’ return they were well on their way to becoming a third-rate European power.
Putin had every advantage: an informed, educated populace in a fully industrialized economy. He had a huge Soviet inheritance—weapons, prestige, everything. Sure, the country was economically in the crapper, but the core was good—certainly a much better position than the other ex-Soviet states.
And yet what’s he done? Fucked up two invasions and generally faffed about. The once mighty Soviet industry has atrophied with Dutch Disease; the Russian government is rife with corruption; and their stockpiles are smoldering heaps scattered throughout Ukraine.
Russian and Ukrainian forces conducted positional engagements along the entire line of conduct, but there were no confirmed map changes on December 31.
Nothing is moving. The front is quiet for the holidays...mostly. There’s been some buildup in Avdiivka as the Kremlin looks to be girding itself for a fourth wave of assaults. I don’t know why, though. If they haven’t taken the city by now, then I don’t see what another trainload of sunflowers will do to improve the situation. Nevertheless, Russia’ll probably keep trying, and dying, until something changes.
That might be coming soon, too. The temperature is plummeting in Kherson Oblast next week. Humidity is down to 80%, which means the thermal system is running on stored heat. Water holds a lot of energy, which can take a long time to bleed off.
When it does bleed off, though, things tend to accelerate. By this time next week Kherson’s soil might be rock-solid.
Russian forces conducted another series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 29 to 30 and on December 31, underscoring a notable recent increase in the percentage of Russian Shahed-136/131 drones penetrating or avoiding Ukrainian air defenses.
This I find interesting. Ukraine’s shot-down rate plummeted recently. Knockdown percentage dropped from 80% average to something hovering in the 50% range. ISW posits Russia’s brag of a new lightweight stealth-Shahed has some legitimacy, that or it’s because Russia switched to less protected targets along the frontline.
It’s a start...but it’s been three days, and Ukraine has had ample time to adjust to this changing dynamic. Several possibilities for this slow adjustment come to mind,
Ukraine’s AA is genuinely fatigued and running low on supplies / or / manpower.
Russia’s missile tantrum was more successful than we originally believed and they struck a Patriot battery or something.
Ukraine’s up to something.
I’m putting my money on option three. I think—and I have literally zero evidence—that Ukraine repositioned a goodly portion of their AA to Kherson Oblast. In my estimation their goal may be to gain localized air superior with the eye towards a mass crossing the Dnipro after the ground hardens.
That’s the story my gut whispers, at any rate, but it’s been wrong before so I suppose we’ll just have to wait and see.
A prominent Kremlin-affiliated Russian milblogger argued that ethnic Russians do not have enough domestic power in Russia while reiterating a common Russian information operation aimed at erasing Ukrainian identity.
I mean what more power could this guy possibly want? The government is already stripping brown people of their citizenship and forcing them off to war. Ethnonationalism only makes sense when a country is made up of, you know, people of the same ethnicity, not some bloated relic spanning a third of the planet. Here’s it’s just ridiculous.
Russian President Vladimir Putin used his annual New Year's address on December 31 to concretize Russian ideological priorities for 2024, notably omitting any mentions of the war in Ukraine and instead focusing on setting ideological conditions for the upcoming year.
Last year Putin beat the drumbeat of war, rallying the people around Bakhmut. This year he’s downplaying the whole damn thing. That doesn’t sound like the trajectory of a winner to me.
Y’all smell that? That’s fear.
Russia continues efforts to integrate education systems in occupied Ukraine and expand education programs aimed at eliminating Ukrainian identity in occupied territories.
Cultural genocide, ladies and gentlemen. Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this to an end.
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'S’ For the Community:
‘Happy New Year!’ your hangover screams at the crack-ass of dawn.
You blink blearily at the shades and curse that you live in a home with east facing windows. It’s hard going, but after a refreshing vomit and a tall Pedialite, you feel almost human. Almost. Something’s been off, though, and been off all morning. You dismissed it as just part of the hangover...but that wasn’t it, that wasn’t it at all. You stumble through unfamiliar halls to find yourself in front of an ornate bathroom mirror. In it, staring back at you is the face of Vladamir Putin.
A cough snatches your attention; your head whips around only to find one of those weird bathroom butlers, the ones that hand you a towel and a mint after you shit out your colon. This butler wants to make small talk. “What are your New Years’ Resolutions, sir?” he asks.
Almost without thinking, you awkwardly blurt out, [Submit Below]