The Peanut Gallery: January 7, 2024
Some Kid Lights a Russian Jet on Fire - Kremlin Remains Terrified of Kherson's Skies
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation.
Please remember that I know nothing.
When I was a kid I was a dumbass, a top-shelf moron. I slept through my classes, mostly because I was bored, and since nobody knew what to do with me, the district eventually stuffed me into a continuation school with the other fuckups. I didn’t fit in. The other kids spent their time watching reality television with the teachers, while I kind of just...existed. I played a LOT of Alpha Centauri and X-Com as they were the only games I could get to run on the school’s broke-ass machines. Two and a half months later I apparently made up enough of my three years' worth of missed assignments to graduate six months early. I do not recall doing any schoolwork.
American public education, ladies and gentlemen.
While I was there, however, we had a guy from the Merchant Marines wander in to give us a sales pitch. I heard the word “marine” and went on a rant about the ethical violation of attempting to recruit in a high school for stupid kids. The man left thoroughly confused and covered in Poptart crumbs.
Anyway, that was my little teenage rebellion. This kid, though? This kid puts my dumbassery to shame. For those who don’t wish to wallow in Musk’s cesspool, some 16-y/o teenager broke into a Russian military base and lit a Su-34 on fire.
A few quick questions:
How did a 16 y/o get on a military base?
How did a 16 y/o get close to a Su-34, a $50 million aircraft, without detection?
And how did a 16 y/o have enough time and freedom to douse a massive piece of military hardware in kerosene?
There are no positive answers to these questions.
A Russian milblogger claimed that the successful Ukrainian downing of Russian aircraft in December 2023 is impeding Russian use of aircraft in the Kherson direction and added that Russian forces are still facing challenges with the operational flow of information, communications, electronic warfare (EW), and unit cooperation in Krynky and other areas on the east bank.
Russia remains terrified of flying birds in Kherson, therefore my correction remains outstanding. I’ll change my stance on Ukraine’s possession of F-16s the moment Russia feels brave enough to hurl glide bombs at Krynky. Mind you, we saw some air action in Zaporizhzhia. Russia chucked a few bombs, which means they feel brave enough to venture to somewhere between Mariupol and Melitopol.
What’s changed? Why is Russia so terrified of flying aircraft in Kherson Oblast? They’ve hurled missiles at Ukraine in enormous quantities, yet Ukraine’s maintains a 70% shot-down percentage. If it's a Patriot battery then it's back where it belongs now.
And then there’s the question of the “Storm Shadow” attacks. First that landing ship, then yesterday’s admin complex in Crimea. It’s a demonstrated willingness to deploy expensive strategic strike assets, assets solely carried by a platform which has seen a declining prevalence: Ukraine had ten-to-twenty Su-24s before the war, and many of those are out of action. Now apparently they’re firing off four missile salvos.
Either way, something is shooting those cruise missiles. It’s probably Su-24s. Maybe not, though, and it’s that “maybe” that’s got me excited. Always has.
The milblogger similarly observed that Ukrainian forces are actively mining Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the Kherson direction.
Can’t help but feel like something’s about to go down.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to court Russian servicemen and their families ahead of the March 2024 presidential election during a meeting with family members of deceased Russian servicemen on January 6.
ISW goes into detail, but apparently Putin’s been caught recycling actors again. I guess it’s tough finding loyalists when your country is run by a delusional psychopath.
Head of the Kremlin-controlled Russian Orthodox Church Patriarch Kirill of Moscow stated that Russia cannot reject Russian citizens who “understand they made a mistake” by fleeing Russia after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and now want to return home.
Anyone stupid enough to return to Russia deserves their fate.
Two Russian government officials defended migrants’ continued presence in Russia amid ongoing migrant crackdowns, generating heavy milblogger criticism and indicating that the Russian government likely still lacks a unified policy toward migrants in Russia.
Actually, ISW, I think their policy towards migrants is remarkably consistent: they are not Russian. First generation, second generation? Doesn’t matter. Citizenship is subject to the whims of the State, and its only guarantee is service in the Russian armed forces. It’s a very coherent argument, especially when coupled with economic disenfranchisement.
Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 6 to 7.
Russia fired off another volley of probing Shaheds. There was no concerted target. The goal was to poke the Ukrainian air defense shield for weaknesses.
One unfortunately got through and killed five children.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets stated on January 7 that Russia has pushed back the deadline for the establishment of the new Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts (MMD and LMD) for at least the second time due to weapons and personnel shortages and bureaucratic issues.
I mean, it’ll likely be delayed a third and fourth time as Putin doesn’t give a fuck about NATO. Putin’s never felt we were a threat; this war is entirely about keeping Ukraine from leaving.
I wonder what would happen if we just picked up the border posts and moved them a kilometer or so towards Moscow. Is that a nuclear-worthy offense? I say we give it a try and see what happens.
Ukrainian Air Force Spokesperson Colonel Yuriy Ihnat refuted media reports that the Danish Ministry of Defense (MoD) is delaying its first delivery of six F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine for up to six months.
Ha!
Man, I was in a melodramatic mood yesterday. I really should have spent more than thirty seconds looking into that entry. Live and learn, I suppose.
Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on January 4 that will allow Russia to forcibly grant citizenship to deported Ukrainian children.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this to an end.
'Q’ And ‘S’ For the Community:
Thank you everyone who has submitted sources over the last couple days. For any later comers, I’m requesting a list of people that you trust to receive news. I’d like to do a bit of background research and put together a quick reference guide. Please submit people you trust for geopolitical news in the comments below.
If you enjoyed what you read, consider joining us over on /r/TheNuttySpectacle.