The Peanut Gallery: January 8, 2024
Russian Aviation Timidly Returns to Kherson Skies - Russian War Support Continues Downward Trajectory.
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery!! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation.
Yeah, I decided to go back. I liked the name better. Please remember that I know nothing.
So...Putin put me in a bit of a pickle today.
Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk reported that Russian forces are intensifying aviation operations in the Kherson direction after largely pausing aviation operations since Ukrainian forces downed three Russian Su-34 aircraft in the Kherson direction in late December 2023.[72] Humenyuk noted that Russian forces are unsuccessfully conducting unguided bomb strikes, as opposed to glide bomb strikes, on Ukrainian positions in east bank Kherson Oblast.
Over the last couple days, I’ve held firm to the theory Ukraine has F-16s because Russia's terrified of sticking aviation over Kherson Oblast. That’s been my line. I figured if Ukraine used a Patriot battery to knock down three Su-34s, then Russia would have resumed air strikes on Krynky once they determined the Patriot battery was back in Odessa or something.
Well, bombs are falling on Krynky again...no, that’s not an accurate description. The outskirts? The local countryside? Vague direction? That’s it. Bombs are falling in the vague direction of Krynky. I’m not satisfied with this and, for today at least, I’ll keep holding on to hope.
Here’s why: unguided bomb strikes? Tactically useless. They’re when a jet climbs to obscene altitude, accelerates to maximum speed, and fires off an unguided munition on a ballistic trajectory at an angle optimized for distance. Here’s a shirtless hunk with a longbow to demonstrate the concept. Russia might be able to squeeze out forty-to-fifty kilometer from this sort of bullshit, but...why? If they’re lucky, those repurposed and now unguided glide bombs might land somewhere in the same zip code, but it’s a coin flip.
Tomorrow Russia will likely prove me wrong. These unguided strikes are clearly an attempt to “feel out” skies of Kherson Oblast. As Russia grows in confidence, their attacks will become more brazen. Eventually they’ll fuck up, and that’s when we’ll know for certain. Can Ukraine repeat what they did in December? Or are we going back to the November status quo?
Ukrainian officials highlighted the need for more air defense systems after another large series of Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of January 7 to 8.
Give me the stamp—give me the fucking “Approved” stamp and I’ll hammer it onto every request Ukraine sends. Fuck, I’ll even ship ‘em myself. I don’t know how I’ll get the USPS to accept several thousand tons of military hardware, but I’ll find a way. Wrap it in brown paper, maybe.
Ukrainian forces are adapting to battlefield difficulties from equipment shortages but are struggling to completely compensate for artillery ammunition shortages and insufficient electronic warfare (EW) capabilities.
Necessity is the mother of invention.
Ukraine’s been complaining about Soviet-era artillery munition shortages for most of the war. Quite frankly the situation has only exacerbated. They’ve begun, in a curious turn of events, to substitute artillery munitions with ordinance-flying drones. Precision guided tactical explosives as a replacement for massed fire of dumb munitions. It’s honestly just more efficient.
Here’s how this is going to evolve. It’s happened a thousand times before. It’s the problem-response dichotomy all over again. Drones – Countered by EW – Countered by onboard AI guidance – Countered by AI controlled AA – Countered by whatever the fuck currently counters AA but probably with a computer in control.
Welcome to the future, bitches. Turns out Skynet’s real.
Russian government and media officials recently have died, possibly under mysterious circumstances.
People are falling out of windows again in Russia. There’s been a few low-level killings, tailored towards the media, bloggers, and regional politicians. We should see this as a sign of crumbling stability. These people were aware of the dangers of crossing Putin; the punishment was made abundantly clear; and yet, we can surmise based upon the chosen targets, that these people were killed because they threatened to reveal things Putin preferred to keep hidden. They were primarily media figures, figures whose sole power (and threat) stems from their audience.
And narrative has taken an increasingly existential turn this election season given general public souring on the war.
Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on January 8 that recent polling shows decreased domestic support for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine ahead of the March 2024 Russian presidential elections.
Putin has tried cheerleading. He tried rallies and speeches and triumphant promises; he’s tried ignoring it, romanticizing it, existentializing it—all failed. Every. Single. One.
Ukraine cannot be sold to the Russian public because the Russian public have no reason to care about Ukraine. They do not believe in their government; they tolerate their government, choking on apathy and alcoholism, but they don’t think it’s there to serve them. The Kremlin is a shining totem of corruption, something to be avoided. The country’s gain is not their gain, therefore the conquest of Ukraine means nothing. Nothing for Ivan Everyman, at any rate.
You can’t sell a war until you give a reason to love the state.
Russian authorities are reportedly illegally deporting Ukrainian civilians to Russia and holding them in penal colonies and pre-trial detention centers without charges, investigations, trials, access to lawyers, or designated release dates.
The Russian Federation is attempting to depopulate Ukraine with the goal of replacing the local culture with their own. It’s a form of genocide.
Russia continues to forcibly deport children from occupied Ukraine under the guise of vacations.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this to an end.
'Q’ For the Community:
How will the decreasing domestic support in Russia for the invasion of Ukraine likely to affect Putin's strategies and decisions in the upcoming presidential elections?
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