The Peanut Gallery: Kremlin Goes Live With Their Kupyansk Clusterfuck - Probably. ISW Unwilling to Commit.
January 20, 2024
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Please remember that I know nothing.
About two days ago on a black, moonless night, I stumbled through a forest; undergrowth tore and scratched at my skin as I made my way, utterly lost. I fell down a hill. It hurt. Let me tell you, I was terrified. One cannot know true fear until they wander blind and without bearing...but such are the trials we suffer to avoid paying alimony, am I right fellas?
Now I would have been stuck walking circles forever if I hadn’t spied a pale flash out of the corner of my eye. I followed it, naturally, only to find—and wouldn’t you know it—the goddess Selene herself, awol on the job and as lost as myself. I was about to step out and yell at that slacker to get her ass back to work, when /u/LaraStardust stepped from behind a large boulder to take Selene by the hand. Lara deftly guided the Moon between trees, over branches, and up treacherous hills--these things which were my bane.
I followed them as best I could. They led me to a clearing, and it was there that Selene thanked Lara, reached up, and resumed her place as Foremost of the Stars.
Anyway, that’s why I decided to give /u/LaraStardust their new flair: Selene’s All Seeing Guide.
Russian forces recently advanced along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line on January 20. Geolocated imagery published on January 20 indicates that Russian forces captured Krokhmalne (20km northwest of Svatove), and Russian milbloggers earlier claimed that Ukrainian forces withdrew from positions near the settlement.
ISW isn’t ready to declare this an official offensive because they haven’t received pictures and videos, but it seems pretty clear to me that this thing’s for real. But both sides are reporting significant spikes in action, and when both Russians and Ukrainians agree that something is happening, I’m inclined to believe it’s happening. You don’t need to see video evidence, ISW—drop your standards. Not as low as mine, of course.
Ukraine isn’t releasing results, so we don’t know how they’re doing on the defense. Word is the Kremlin’s dumping loads of armor into the assaults on Kupyansk, probably at least somewhat equal to what they were dumping into Avdiivka in the early days. For the Kremlin to be willing to launch an offensive they’d have to feel confident of their numbers.
Likely the losses are obscene, as too they were in Avdiivka. They’d have to be to convince Ukraine to yield Krokhmal'ne. Assuming this attack isn’t just an extremely vigorous probe, we can likely expect footage to start rolling in over the next couple days if it hasn’t already.
A Russian Storm-Z instructor claimed on January 16 that Rosgvardia personnel operating in occupied Ukraine have systematic issues with equipment and weapons storage.
Yeah, because they’re Storm-Z. They’re the punishment battalion. Frankly it’s fucking remarkable they’re given guns in the first place. Were I in their shoes, I’d shit myself, then cap my superior officer. One in the dome and I’m off for the Ukrainian lines. Adios, muchachos.
Russian President Vladimir Putin falsely claimed that Russia supports the “unconditional equality” and “sovereignty” of all states in a January 20 letter to the Non-Aligned Movement Summit, contradicting Russia’s official position on its war in Ukraine and its wider imperial ambitions.
Putin claims a lot of things. I've learned not to take him at his word.
Russian energy exports to China significantly increased in 2023 amid increasing Russian reliance on oil revenues to manage the fiscal burdens of the war in Ukraine.
Gonna be honest with you guys, I’m not a big fan of Xi. I know. I know. Controversial take.
The thing is, though...a whole lot of suffering could have been avoided if China had just joined the rest of the world in protest of this clear barbarism. They are the sole pillar holding up the Russian economy. It’s Chinese products; Chinese goods and manufacturing; that’s what’s powering this war.
If Xi would just stop being a blistered twat for, like...a little bit, I would sure appreciate it.
European Union (EU) Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton stated on January 20 that the EU will have the capacity to produce 1.3 to 1.4 million artillery shells by the end of 2024 and will ensure that it delivers the “majority” of the shells to Ukraine.
Hell yeah! Capitalism! When it works it works, y’know? Credit where it’s due.
I’m grateful to Europe for their vivid demonstration of how to get one’s shit together. Hopefully we can pull an imitation over here in the states, politically speaking.
Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko confirmed that Russian authorities have deported over 2,100 Ukrainians, including 500 children, to Russia for medical reasons in 2023.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this to an end.
'Q’ For the Community:
What’s your take on the Kupyansk situation? Think it’s a for real offensive?
Join the conversation over on /r/TheNuttySpectacle.