The Peanut Gallery: Kremlin To Report 94% Turnout in Upcoming Election! Putin Proves Himself a Paragon of Democracy Through Enforcement of Society-Wide Predeterminism!
March 10, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Today we’re going to ramble.
Please remember that I know nothing.
A Ukrainian military official confirmed that Russian forces are conducting strikes in Ukraine with improved guided glide bombs.
Good and bad news, folks.
Bad news: glide bombs are dropping around Donetsk Oblast again, meaning they’re likely dropping in the Bakhmut and Avdiivka direction too. Worse, the jets aren’t immediately falling out of the sky, meaning Russia found some new way to fire off glide bombs without putting themselves at risk.
Good news: the ‘not putting themselves at risk’ part is contingent upon a new type of glide bomb with an extended range. Moscow didn’t retake the airspace above 25km from the front line, more pushed out a prototype that works a few kms farther out. This new glide bomb—D-30SN—is rumored to have a range of 90km... once Moscow manages to figure out how to put a jet engine on it.
Yes indeed, apparently Russia’s new long-range boom-boom will someday have a jet engine. Actually, you know what? Let’s examine that claim.
Glide bombs are super useful because they...well....glide. They’re all payload, no fuel. Momentum arrives via the jet carrying it. The faster the jet goes, the faster the bomb goes, so what flies is just explosives and computer chips. Maybe a bit of boost.
By sticking a jet engine on the glide bomb you’re just turning it into a missile. A super aerodynamic missile. The problem is expense, both weight and financial.
First, they’re tough to build, typically made of solid metal, and thus take up a lot of space and weight. Bringing a jet engine also means bringing the fuel to carry said engine until it’s no longer useful, which is the moment the fuel runs out. After that it’s just dead weight.
Second, they cost a shit load, running around $200k / pop here in the States. Generally the combination of these factors encourages a heavier payload, meaning still more fuel, and thus must be meticulously engineered. A shit load of time and labor later and we start giving them names like ‘Storm Shadow’ and ‘Taurus’ to justify their absurd expense.
Moscow stuck modern guidance on Soviet-era gliding dumb-bombs. It allows them to squeeze out a few more kilometers, but it does nothing to solve the core of the problem: Russia cannot keep an A-50 over the Sea of Azov. Without that surveillance craft, they need to rely on an ad hoc system of radar stations, which is a backup; and the double tap: those stations relied on the A-50 for coordination.
The A-50 was the keystone piece of equipment, and its absence presents opportunity. Now that Russia’s surveillance system has been fractured, Ukraine can hunt its fragments in turn. They don’t need to root out everything, just enough to create an exploitable patchwork.
Russian sources reported that the Russian military command has replaced Admiral Nikolai Yevmenov with Northern Fleet Commander Admiral Alexander Moiseev as Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Navy.
...Okay? And? Is the ASF even relevant anymore? Now that’s an ISW special edition I’d love to read.
Russian occupation authorities opened early voting in occupied Ukraine for Russia’s presidential election on March 10 that will last until March 14.
The patriotism of the Russian people never ceases to amaze. Truly 94% voter turnout (with 80% voting for Putin) will be a wonder to behold, a true testament to Putin’s brilliant leadership. My heart swells with fervor for the restoration of the Novorossiya. When men were men, dental care was a hammer and a chisel, and everyone died in their thirties. Oh... to live again in the Halcyon days of feudal Russia...wouldn’t that be grand?
Ukrainian and Russian sources stated that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast near Krynky as of March 10.[57] Ukraine’s Southern Operational Command reported that Russian forces did not conduct combat operations for the second consecutive day on March 10 and instead focused on conducting aerial reconnaissance, artillery fire, and drone operations.[58]
Activity around Krynky is down significantly, almost to a standstill, and both sides seem comfortable simply trading artillery fire. Ukraine’s ultimate intent with Krynky remains a mystery.
Over 1,000 civilian ships have transited Ukraine’s “grain corridor” in the Black Sea despite persistent Russian efforts to undermine international confidence in the corridor.
Along with some thirty-million tons of cargo, meaning in four months Ukraine managed to regain their pre-war levels of export. It also means that Moscow’s bombing campaign on Odesa last summer was a dismal failure. Russia has lost all semblance of control over Odesa, so now question becomes: can they keep Ukraine from moving around west of Crimea? We're talking midnight raids, scouting, and rude gestures made in visual range of the Crimean coast.
Chechen officials organized a march in Grozny, Chechnya, on March 10 in support of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s candidacy in the upcoming March presidential election.
Kids, if you take one lesson from Kadyrov’s life, it should be that it never hurts to kiss a little ass.
Russian authorities in Moscow Oblast created “training programs” for people potentially considering adopting illegally deported Ukrainian children in Russia.[80] The program reportedly falsely conflates Ukrainian and Russian culture. The program reportedly tells participants that their main objective is to create a “second homeland” for Ukrainian children in Russia and that they will need to overcome “difficulties in international differences.” Participants of the training program must undergo interviews in which Russian authorities ask if they have Ukrainian friends and relatives. ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children likely amounts to a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
How did you vote in Russia’s next week’s general election? I hope my ballot went for Igor Girkin.
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