The Peanut Gallery: Lithuanian Intelligence Detail Scope of Russian War Effort - West Settles in for Long Haul
March 7, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Today we’re going shift our mindset.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Lithuanian intelligence assessed that Russia has the capability to continue sustaining the current tempo of its war in Ukraine and will likely have the capability to gradually expand its military capabilities in the near term.
Lithuanian intelligence published its 2024 national threat assessment on March 7 wherein it assessed that Russia has the manpower, material, and financial resources to sustain its war effort in Ukraine in the near term.
Lithuanian intelligence noted that Russia reconstituted and increased its deployed manpower in Ukraine in 2023 despite suffering heavy losses but continues to prioritize quantity of manpower and materiel over quality of forces.
Lithuanian intelligence also assessed that Russia’s defense industrial base (DIB) has become a driving force within the Russian economy at the expense of other economic sectors and that Russia had allocated at least 10.8 trillion rubles (about $119 billion) to military spending in 2023.
Lithuanian intelligence also assessed that Russia is unlikely to abandon its long-term objectives of subjugating Ukraine even if Russian fails to achieve these objectives through military means.
Is this how the military thinks, ISW Press? Jesus fucking Christ that level of uniformity is intense. Like a gatling gun, each shot identical to the one that came before.
Anyway, apparently Lithuanian Intelligence released a report. It says we’re in for a long ass war. Sorry, folks. Them’s the breaks.
Here’s why thing’s been crap late: we’re collectively accepting the reality of the situation. Some of us (Me) have been operating under the Disney-esque fairytail that our institutions functioned as advertised, that government really was For the People and By the People. Unfortunately it turns out democracy doesn’t mean a damn thing when a foreign tyrant outright purchases it.
Deep breath.
So! Empires are scary. They care not for human suffering, nor logic or reason. Putin will slaughter untold numbers to ensure his own survival, and he is in full operational control of a nuclear arsenal. My life and the lives of my loved ones are at his disposal. We are spared hellfire solely by the extent of our intervention. I say this not to frighten you, rather to inform.
Now how the fuck do we stop him.
The focus, at least given the scale of Europe’s commitment, is to lay the groundwork for future production capacity. NATO had a limited stockpile of munitions ready, a small strategic reserve for a limited conflict. By-gone (and admirably vindicated) military planners assumed a fractional stockpile would allow them ample time to ramp up productive capacity prior to a major conflict.
And that is exactly what is happening. Russia’s incursion, combined with Iran’s fuckery in the Red Sea, and all of it topped-off with the CCP threatening Taiwan, has triggered an explosion in investment in the military industrial complex the likes of which I don’t think have ever happened before in peacetime. These are long-term investments, too, so it’s a sort of affirmation by the West that we’re in this for the long haul.
Assuming, of course, Mike Johnson gets off his fucking ass and passes the US aid package.
Sweden formally joined NATO on March 7, becoming the 32nd member of the alliance.
Welcome Sweden! NATO Lake 4-Ever Strong!
Wait a minute...didn’t Putin start this war explicitly to inhibit NATO’s expansion? I could have sworn that was the original intent. Now NATO is +2 Best Buds and the CSTO is –1 Subservient Sycophants.
Scoreboard says we’re winning, Poo-tin.
The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) announced on March 7 that it neutralized an Islamic State (IS) terrorist cell that had been preparing an attack on synagogues in Moscow.[22]
...What? Let me run that back:
ISIS, the radical Muslim fundamentalists, decided to travel all the way to Moscow, hide in the most scrutinized and policed city on the planet, and plan a terrorist attack against—and this is my favorite part—Jews. Have I got that right?
A few questions.
Why?
No, seriously, why? Why travel all the way to Moscow to kill Jews? It’s not exactly Jerusalem.
If I had to hazard a guess, the Kremlin’s lying. Gasp. Shock. I know. My bet is this story of a ISIS terror plot is an attempt to cover up their forced drafting of a migrant enclave.
The governor of the pro-Russian Moldovan autonomous region Gagauzia, Yevgenia Gutsul, met with Russian Presidential Administration Deputy Head Sergei Kiriyenko in Russia on March 7 as Moldovan authorities announced that a criminal case against Gutsul will soon go to court.
As part of Putin’s hybrid warfare campaign to destabilize the Moldovan government, there’s been quite a lot of regional antagonism. Moldova stands on the threshold of the EU, and once in there’ll be very little Putin can do to touch them. Entrance into the EU means access to EU resources and support.
Accession into the EU also means economic severance for Transnistria, which would mean lead to their collapse as they’re landlocked between Moldova and Ukraine. Putin doesn’t want this, so he’s pulling every lever he can reach to ensure it doesn’t go through.
Dude’s powerless, though.
Russian authorities in Moscow Oblast created “training programs” for people potentially considering adopting illegally deported Ukrainian children in Russia.[80] The program reportedly falsely conflates Ukrainian and Russian culture. The program reportedly tells participants that their main objective is to create a “second homeland” for Ukrainian children in Russia and that they will need to overcome “difficulties in international differences.” Participants of the training program must undergo interviews in which Russian authorities ask if they have Ukrainian friends and relatives. ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children likely amounts to a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
Lithuania says we're in for a long war. What are your thoughts?
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