The Peanut Gallery: Melitipol 'Smoking Incident' Ignites FSB's Passion for Vehicle Fire Safety Measures
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation.
For newcomers, this is an amateur's take on the ISW daily bullet points. I know nothing.
Ukraine appears to be intensifying attacks against Russian military, logistics, and other high-profile assets in rear areas in occupied Ukraine and Russia.
We don’t talk about it much, but a lot happens behind the front lines, mostly to the Russians. Hostile occupations are hard, and Russia is a big place with a lot of territory to cover, so it’s relatively simple for Ukraine to slip in and partake in some discrete sabotage. It’s been about four days of these attacks now and I don’t see any sign of them letting up...nor a reason to, for that matter. The more ‘smoking incidents’ among occupation authorities the harder it will be for the Kremlin to keep its grip on Ukraine. And there’s been quite a few ‘smoking incidents’ lately.
Then today Ukraine decided to forego subtlety with a blatant assassination.
Ukrainian partisans attacked a Russian military headquarters in occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast on November 11, killing at least three Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) and Rosgvardia officers.
You’d think the FSB would be better at guarding against this sort of thing, but then here we are. Three internal security officers down are a huge win, not least of all because those people form the core foundation of Putin’s regime. They’re highly trained psychopaths, difficult to replace, and the FSB is already over extended.
The interesting thing to me is that these attacks, both deep inside Russia proper and in occupied Ukraine, are so disparate as to be performed by several separate groups, yet despite this distance they’re able to precisely coordinate their actions with a high probability of success. Four attacks; four days in a row; that implies GUR is capable of long-term coordinated planning, and the carbomb implies a capacity to exploit opportunism.
In my (amateur) estimation Russia’s security situation appears to be deteriorating.
A Ukrainian Telegram channel specifically covering the tactical situation around Avdiivka claimed on November 11 that Ukrainian forces pushed Russian forces out of Stepove after Russian forces had temporarily established positions in the settlement.
And deteriorating control over the rear echelon is reflected in declining prospects in Russia’s ill-advised Avdiivka offensive. A few days back I mentioned the Kremlin’s human wave tactics gained them a toehold on the eastern edge of the Stepove. Well today their feet slipped and now they’re back down at the bottom of the scrap heap.
Does that mean Stepove is in the clear? God no. The position’s fortifications are likely severely degraded, and Ukraine will likely find it difficult to repair their bulwark before the next wave of Vatnik sacrifices appear on the horizon.
That said, the loss of the toehold further demonstrates Russia’s declining capacity to maintain current lines. Think back over the last couple months: we’ve seen the evisceration of the BSF; the increasing boldness of Ukrainian rear strikes; and Russia’s continued inability to make progress in Avdiivka. This is not the series of events which implies a stalemate. The lines are moving slowly, inexorably towards the Russian border.
For example,
Ukrainian forces made a marginal gain on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast on November 12 amid ongoing ground operations.
Ukraine maintained its position in Krynky for another day. Better still, it doesn’t look like Russia is going to push them out anytime soon.
Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets reported that Russian forces have committed relatively few units to defend the Oleshky-Nova Kakhovka Road and to respond to Ukrainian operations on the east bank, likely to conserve combat power within the broader “Dnepr” Group of Forces.
I think the ISW is giving the Kremlin the benefit of the doubt. They’re assuming the Kremlin is holding back, preserving their forces for Ukraine’s big push...that this is all going according to some wider defensive strategy. It’s not. Over Ukraine’s offensive, Russia shoved quarter strength units into frontline defensive positions, then less than a week later threw those same units into highly attritional offensive operations.
There’s no ‘conservation’ of manpower here. Putin doesn’t know what that word means. If there’s no combat power pushing Ukraine off its beachhead, then there’s no combat power available.
The Russian government is attempting to downplay the extent of its efforts to strengthen control over the Russian information space.
“Nah, brah. We’re chill on VPNs,” the Kremlin said, adjusting their grip on the skateboard slung over their shoulder. “We just want to make sure you’re using the safe ones, you feel me dawg? You feel me? Are we feeling each other right now? There’s this committee, see—total snooze-fest, but they say VPNs are dangerous. Them’s the breaks. Rules are rules, our hands are tied: here’s a list of VPNs that you can’t use. Yes, it does appear as if it’s all of them. Funny that.”
At least we now know that fascist governments struggle with VPNs, even the techno-fluent ones like Russia. Hopefully we never need to use this information.
Russia continues to posture itself as a prominent security guarantor for authoritarian countries in Africa.
What’s even the value of a Russian security guarantee after they ditched Armenia? Honestly I think Putin is just swooping in with a few crates of AK-47s and a smile. It’s not hard to do. The West has been collectively pulling out of the continent recently as Europe relinquishes its colonial holdings. In our absence, Putin swooped in with a smile and several jets filled with Soviet hand-me-downs.
I hate how Africa is the world’s punching bag. It really disgusts me.
Israeli forces continued operating in the vicinity of al Shifa Hospital without fully isolating it.
The IDF is demonstrating remarkable restraint in their approach to al Shifa Hospital. The place is fully staffed, surrounded by 50k + people, and completely infested with Hamas. They have not cutoff the eastern side of the building and are, instead, leaving it open to evacuation. Israel offered the hospital a token amount of fuel, likely as a test to see what would happen, and Hamas stole it. Those bastards ripped it right from the doctor’s hands.
Hamas isn’t on the side of the Palestinian people, and I think Palestine is beginning to figure that out. Down in the south we’ve got our first signs of rebellion.
The Associated Press reported that Palestinians in the southern Gaza Strip displaced by the fighting are “openly challenging” Hamas’ authority on a limited basis
Here we see why it’s so important to control the narrative. Israel’s constant efforts to make allowances for the Palestinian people has had a knock-on effect that’s placed blame squarely on the shoulders of Hamas. Israel said evacuate south : Hamas put of roadblocks; Israel opened a humanitarian corridor: Hamas fired on it with mortars; Israel provided al Shifa with fuel : Hamas stole it. A tale of contrasts.
It all tells a story, a story with one villain: Hamas, the assholes who started this in the first place.
The Associated Press cited four anonymous Palestinians who told the wire service that some Gazans are repeatedly voicing their dissent with Hamas’ rule publicly.[10] The report said that “hundreds” of Gazans insulted Hamas during the night and called for an end to the war at an unspecified UN shelter in Gaza City.[11] Witnesses told the outlet that some locals are “beating up policemen.”[12]
These people are hungry. Tired. They’re sleeping in tents and don’t know when (or if) they’ll get to go home. I’d be pretty friggin’ pissed myself. Let’s hope the Palestinian people soon realize that they’re the only ones who can unilaterally bring this to an end.
ISW has recorded a steep decline in claimed attacks targeting US forces in the region following the US airstrike on an IRGC facility in eastern Syria on November 8.
Hopefully the trend continues.
Thank you for enduring today's rant. The Chonhar Bridge Happy Fun Time Betting Pool remains ongoing.
Kremlin-appointed Commissioner on Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova advertised several benefit schemes targeting children in occupied Ukraine as part of the "A Country for Children" strategic program.
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'C’(hoose your own adventure) for the Community:
You are a forty-seven year old Ukrainian lady who lives on the outskirts of Melitipol. Wine and sowing kneedles is your ideal evening. You have four cats. Russia has taken your home, your husband, and your children. They owe you a debt and you intend to collect. With that goal in mind you started a small paramilitary group / book club with the neighborhood girls and are ready to pull your first op. It is November 12th. The book this week was Oprah’s biography. What is your group’s first op?