The Peanut Gallery: Moscow Demanded Kyiv's Vassalage in Istanbul 2022 Peace Negotiations
March 1, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Today we’re going to talk about peace.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Reported details of Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiations that occurred in Istanbul in April 2022 indicate that Russia has consistently envisioned a settlement for its illegal invasion of Ukraine wherein Ukraine would be unable to defend itself from a future Russian attack – an objective Russia continues to pursue under calls for Ukraine’s “demilitarization.”
Let’s just go over a few of Putin’s terms:
Ukraine will not allow foreign troops upon its soil.
Ukraine will not import weapons.
The absolute quantity of personnel in Ukraine’s armed forces shall not exceed 85k.
Russia annexes a hundred kms of Ukraine’s territory, beyond what they’ve already seized as a “Demiliterized Zone”.
Ukraine shall not, under any circumstances, enter into foreign entanglements.
Also I think ISW said something about a rewrite of the Ukrainian constitution—I kind of zoned out for a bit. I recall it being full of absurd demands, utterly impossible, and would essentially eliminate Ukraine’s capacity to operate as a sovereign state. No integration with Europe, no consideration from NATO, and nothing to look forward to but an inexorable integration into the Russian Federation.
Fuck that.
Reported details of the draft treaty suggest that Russia intended to use the treaty to set conditions for future attacks against Ukraine while also prompting the West to make concessions on Ukraine’s sovereignty.
Yeah, because Ukraine wouldn’t be able to field an army bigger than 85k—like that really can’t be overstated in importance. For a sense of scale, pre-2014 Crimea Ukraine’s army hovered around ~150k. Putin’s terms would set them to roughly half that number. It would effectively neuter their capacity to defend themselves in any meaningful sense, meaning their security would be entirely dependent upon Moscow’s whims.
The very suggestion of these terms proves Putin is not serious about peace.
Russian authorities suggested that the Kremlin has likely adopted a more extensive set of goals regarding Ukraine over the course of Russia's war against Ukraine.
I’d even go so far as to argue Putin isn’t living in our reality. Putin is drunk on power, high on his own megalomaniacal supply, and I’m thinking he’s about to go down like Scarface. With each of these threats he overextends himself. Putin believes Europe cowed, America paralyzed, and himself on the cusp of victory, but if that were the case then what the fuck is happening in the skies over Crimea and the rest of southern Ukraine?
Thirteen planes, mother fucker. Thirteen.
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces conducted a series of strikes against Russian targets near Sevastopol, Yevpatoria, Saky, and Simferopol in occupied Crimea.[59] Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian forces shot down up to ten unspecified air targets.[60]
So are they drones? Missiles? Jets? The world may never know.
This passage just stood out to me because it just goes to show how confident Ukraine is acting in the skies. When was the last time we heard about Putin hitting a rear Ukrainian asset? His now once-a-month missile barrage? Those seem to be getting weaker and weaker. Meanwhile Ukraine is in Russia’s rear blowing up planes, refineries, and anything else they please because there’s apparently nothing Russia can do to stop them.
Except shoot down whatever the fuck Ukraine used in this attack, according to some milblogger. There isn’t coherent footage.
Ukraine and the Netherlands signed a 10-year bilateral security agreement on March 1.
The Dutch Ministry of Defense (MoD) announced that it will provide Ukraine with 14 rigid-hull inflatable boats, eight paramilitary river patrol boats, and CB90-class fast assault craft.[27] The Dutch MoD also announced that it is increasing its contribution to the Czech initiative to provide artillery shells to Ukraine from 100 million euros (about $108 million) to 250 million euros (about $271 million).[28]
Ukraine seems to be getting a lot of river-themed naval vessels lately. Wonder why.
Lately it seems obvious that we’re in it for the long-haul—Europe, at least, has come to the realization...and I think we’re getting there here in the States. I hope so at any rate, because like it or not we’re on this thing till she comes to a stop. Ain't no gettin' off Mr. Bones Wild Ride.
Russian authorities in Moscow Oblast created “training programs” for people potentially considering adopting illegally deported Ukrainian children in Russia.[80] The program reportedly falsely conflates Ukrainian and Russian culture. The program reportedly tells participants that their main objective is to create a “second homeland” for Ukrainian children in Russia and that they will need to overcome “difficulties in international differences.” Participants of the training program must undergo interviews in which Russian authorities ask if they have Ukrainian friends and relatives. ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children likely amounts to a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
Here’s a pen. If you had to write an ideal peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine, what would it contain?
Join the conversation of on /r/TheNuttySpectacle!