The Peanut Gallery: Moscow Makes Moves to Annex Transnistria - Putin's Megalomania Worsens
February 22, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Today ISW shared a warning.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Warning: The pro-Russian breakaway region of Transnistria may call for or organize a referendum on Transnistria’s annexation to Russia at a recently announced Transnistrian Congress of Deputies planned for February 28. The pretext for such a call would be the purported need to protect Russian citizens and “compatriots” in Transnistria from threats from Moldova or NATO or both. Russian President Vladimir Putin could, in the most dangerous course of action, declare Russia’s annexation of Transnistria during his planned address to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 29, although that appears unlikely. Putin will more likely welcome whatever action the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies takes and offer observations on the situation. ISW offers this assessment as a warning for a high-impact event of indetermined probability. Moldovan government officials state that the situation in Moldova is unlikely to worsen as of February 22.[1]
Gavrilo Princip was a stupid, innocent child, in a gang of other stupid and innocent children—the naive sort who plan assassinations which conclude with them swallowing decades-old cyanide capsules...for some reason. No joke, a gaggle of Serbian teenagers formed a Codename: Kids Next Door suicide pact and accidentally’d a global conflict.
World War One was hell, a fate worse than any of us can comprehend. Gas, mud, ditch and gun. Day in, day out: typhus and lice, rats and a foot-inch deep puddle for months at a time. Also corpses. Lots and lots of rotting corpses. Grusome shit.
In the War’s aftermath Humanity said, “Never again!” and signed the Geneva Convention...and we’ve been violating it ever since.
I don’t think Princip intended to exterminate his entire generation, but he did, so I think we should take away that absolute treaties which assume mutual antagonism are shitty and counterproductive.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitry Medvedev said that Russia would likely have to seize Kyiv sooner or later while identifying Russia’s possible further territorial objectives in Ukraine.
The Second World War’s cause was interesting in that I don’t think we really learned a lesson...not collectively. America learned Freedom = Good. Europe learned Fascism = Bad. Soviet Union learned Soviet Union = Good. And I think Asia collectively decided everyone else was crazy.
The point is that it was one man’s narcissistic imposition of self onto a national symbol which triggered the whole thing. Hitler wanted vengeance for Germany’s treatment, and either by accident or intent, he tapped into a common primal need for tribe. Wham-bam-boom he’s annexing Czechoslovakia and sending tanks into Poland.
You know, I don’t blame Chamberlain for catering to Hitler. He held keen memories of WW1 and knew what a repeat would mean. If the problem before was too much spine, Chamberlain’s flaw was too little. A classic over correction, and it’d be forgivable if the mistake led to the most devastating conflict in human history.
But what sort of lesson do you take away from that? Don’t use violence to change borders? That’s been the global policy shift. As a species we looked at the aftermath of the Holocaust and said, “Fine, but keep it domestic,” and went about our business.
Now I think we’re about to find out the consequence of societal isolationism.
Medvedev’s mention of Russia’s possible intentions to occupy Odesa may be worth noting in light of recent developments in the pro-Russian breakaway republic of Transnistria in Moldova, the southern tip of which is about 50 kilometers from the city.
Transnistria's threat isn’t to Odessa in my opinion. Not truly. It’s more to put pressure on Europe. Additional annexations by Russia, even if only on paper, signify Putin’s intentions.
Anders Puck Nielson released an interesting video the other day outlining how Putin plans to test NATO’s Article V. commitment, possibly by picking off something small. His timetable was somewhere in the 2026~2027 range, which adheres to the commonly held consensus.
While I agree a minor incursion is likely the plan, I think Nielson has the time horizon wrong. Putin is already testing NATO every day in subtle little ways. He's hurling refugees at Finland; he’s threatening to blow up French planes over the Black Sea.; and he’s interfering in all of our democracies.
The murder of Navalny was a turning point for Putin towards brazen totalitarianism, an atrocity he only considered because he feels unstoppable. Remember Tucker’s interview? Putin could not be guided nor restrained. He was arrogant, delusional, and utterly incoherent. The man is drunk on power. That’s the exact sort of mindset which would lead someone to inadvisable aggression.
The most dangerous course of action appears at the moment to be a Transnistrian request for annexation followed by Russian action to annex the territory. This course of action appears unlikely at this time.
At the end of the day, however, ISW remains skeptical Moscow will go through with the annexation of Transnistria. True, the Kremlin prepared the information space, but that’s cheap and easy. We’ll have to wait and see if this blossoms into anything significant.
Russian authorities continue to illegally deport Ukrainian civilians, including children, to Russia under the guise of rehabilitation programs. The Russian “We Help Ours” organization stated on February 22 that Russian authorities deported a group of 20 Ukrainian children and their mothers from occupied Luhansk Oblast to a sanatorium in Moscow Oblast.[79]
The Russian army’s discipline is deteriorating. Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
How do you feel the West should react if Putin annexes Transnistria?
Join the conversation of on /r/TheNuttySpectacle!