The Peanut Gallery: Moscow Patriarch Declares Christian Holy War - Kremlin Prepares Russia for Total War
March 30, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Today we’re going to talk about Putin's plans for summer vacation.
Please remember that I know nothing.
The Russian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate (ROC MP), a Kremlin-controlled organization and a known tool within the Russian hybrid warfare toolkit, held the World Russian People’s Council in Moscow on March 27 and 28 and approved an ideological and policy document tying several Kremlin ideological narratives together in an apparent effort to form a wider nationalist ideology around the war in Ukraine and Russia’s expansionist future.
The ROC MP intensified Kremlin rhetoric about Russia’s war in Ukraine and cast it as an existential and civilizational “holy war,” a significant inflection for Russian authorities who have so far carefully avoided officially framing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as any kind of “war.”
Two questions.
First, in what way is Ukraine a threat to Christianity? Do they have some unmentioned allegiance to the Anti-Christ that I have yet to hear about? Is Ukraine nailing Christians to crosses? Feeding them to lions? Reading Harry Potter? What the fuck is so heinous that it justifies a Christian holy war in the Twenty-First Century?
Second, so Putin's okay with the ‘W’ word now, huh? The Kremlin’s just going to slyly normalize the concept before some official declaration? Does the timing of this announcement have anything to do with the upcoming spring conscription cycle? The one kickstarting Monday?
It’s possible (likely, even) Putin has no intention of announcing a formal war. Kirill’s empty declaration of jihad could just be some Kremlin information operation, one designed to rally the people before the spring conscription cycle begins. Use Easter to fire everyone up, then slap ‘em with the draft notice in the morning. A sort of, “Oh? You’re angry? Here’s what you can do,” maneuver.
But on the other hand, Putin’s been drifting hard into totalitarianism lately, starting with that crackdown on the milibloggers last November during Avdiivka. A few weeks later the Kremlin tightened its grip over RusNet by implementing a form of the CCP’s Great Firewall. And then Putin murdered Navalny and the people barely made a peep.
Folks, we may be looking at where Putin intends to get the manpower for his big summer offensive. Putin clearly believes his grip over the Russian people is absolute. Eighty-four percent of the vote, folks. That’s what his government reported. He’s blatant because that’s the message, that’s the intent: “Fear me. Cower. Democracy is dead. It’s a demonstration of his power, an attempt to intimidate his subjects, and when is a demonstration most powerful? When it’s most recent.
Forget waiting. Putin may intend to launch full mobilization on Monday.
The spokesperson for a Ukrainian detachment operating in the Kupyansk direction stated that Russian forces continue to focus on offensive operations in the Lyman direction and have decreased the tempo of their offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction in recent weeks. The spokesperson stated that Russian forces are currently replenishing and rotating unspecified degraded units that participated in offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction before the March 17 Russian presidential elections.
It’s not just Kupyansk. As expected, Russia’s tempo of attack has slowed greatly since Putin’s coronation, though that doesn’t mean they’ve stopped.
Russia is clearly taking a breather. They’re attempting to rotate and reconstitute...yet they’re also on the attack. Casualties are high, averaging in the eight-hundreds, and attacks are consistent across a wide area of the front.
Parts of the army are resting, but everyone else dies to maintain pressure. They’re not gathering strength so much as they are expending it as quickly as it arrives.
While these attacks may be justified due to Ukraine’s supply constraints, they aren’t by the overall strategic situation. Russia has no means to exploit a breach if they manage to create one. Ukraine demonstrated in the first few days of the war the deadly efficacy of light infantry equipped with javelins. Armor is useless. Still. Russia can only grind forward, one bloody step at a time, until they get to Kyiv.
The problem with this thinking, however, is that the war is only frozen because of each side’s fortifications. Each footstep Russia takes carries them farther and farther from the safety of their minefields and trenches.
Unfortunately that weakness will only mean something if Ukraine can take advantage of it.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky indicated that delays in American security assistance have forced Ukraine to cede the battlefield initiative, not contest the battlefield initiative, and continue to threaten Ukraine’s defensive capabilities.
Congress returns on April 8th, Zelensky. Sorry, bro. I'm bummed too.
I don’t think there’s anything left to say at this point. I have expressed my disgust and now I’m just...sad. Mike Johnson’s pointless delay is enabling the systematic devastation of the Ukrainian state.
Russian missile strikes destroyed one of the largest thermal power plants in Kharkiv Oblast on March 22, as continued delays in US security assistance degrade Ukraine’s air defense umbrella and increase Russia’s ability to significantly damage Ukraine’s energy grid.
The March 22nd strikes were one of the largest since the start of the 2022 invasion. Without a consistent and scheduled regiment of military aid, one which provides assurances well into the future, Ukraine cannot plan properly. They need to know what they’ll have and when, else how the fuck can they hope to go on the offensive?
We in the United States are setting Ukraine up to fail by withholding these assurances.
Russian forces are demonstrating technological and tactical adaptations and are increasingly using unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) on the frontlines of Donetsk Oblast.
Rumor has it the Russians stuck a grenade launcher on one of these things. It’s not a bad use for it, if I’m being honest. Drive it to within a few meters of a position, hammer the target with mortars. It’s an automated fire support platform.
Russia was already using these UGVs in the Avdiivka offensive to ferry supplies between forward and rear positions. They did this because getting between those two points was a deadly, horrifying experience. Now they’re fitting these drones for a wider range of roles. It’s a worrying development and part of a trend NATO needs to recognize.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stressed that materiel shortages from delays in Western security assistance are constraining Ukrainian forces and forcing Ukraine to conduct a strategic defense.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community: /r/TheNuttySpectacle!
What are your thoughts on Putin's plans to muster Russia's resources? Do you think a formal declaration of war is likely in the near future?
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