The Peanut Gallery: Navalny Demonstrations Grow - Kremlin Arrests 350 in Monstrous Crackdown
February 17, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation.
Please remember that I know nothing.
There’s a lot of news today, much good, a little bad, but I wanted to start with the following because I think it’ll piss off the Kremlin,
Russian law enforcement has detained at least 350 people in over 30 Russian cities as crowds gathered to lay flowers in honor of Navalny over the last two days, including an estimated 230 people on February 17 alone.[31] Russian opposition sources also published footage of unspecified Russian actors picking up flowers laid at the Solovetsky Stone in Moscow City and other temporary memorials to Navalny throughout Russia on the night of February 16 to 17, attempting to erase any evidence of previous demonstrations.[32] Russian authorities seemed to tolerate smaller public gatherings immediately following the announcement of Navalny’s death but appeared less tolerant of and engaged in more concerted efforts to suppress the second day of larger demonstrations.
Sounds like folks are getting over the shock and beginning the mourning process. Contrary to popular belief, Russia’s spirit isn’t broken, not completely. They express civic engagement through nondescript homage to innocuous monument of a shared struggles. Or, if they don’t have one handy, a wreath of flowers, maybe a candle. They’re as threatening as a fucking prayer circle.
Nevertheless, Putin arrested several hundred of them, meaning he is not fucking around when it comes to this murder. The response so far has been aggressive, but now he’s set himself up as a barrier to grief. Now the question isn’t, ‘Do we rebel?’ it’s, ‘Why can’t we mourn?’ Paradoxically, by cracking down on something simple he’s lowered the threshold for protesting.
Not ready to chuck Molotov's? That’s fine. Now Russians can express their discontent simply by existing.
Today was an escalation from yesterday. Hopefully the trend continues.
Ukrainian forces inflicted heavy losses on Russian forces during the defense of and withdrawal from Avdiivka — the Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Press Service reported that Ukrainian forces inflicted losses of 20,018 personnel, 199 tanks, and 481 armored combat vehicles in the Tavriisk direction (from Avdiivka through western Zaporizhia Oblast) between January 1 and February 15, with the majority of those losses inflicted near Avdiivka.
Just for a bit of context, Avdiivka had a prewar population of 30,000, for which Moscow paid 20,000 personnel, 200 tanks and 500 APCs...yeah, I’d say Ukraine got the better of that exchange. If the pincer had worked, this would’ve been a different story, but instead the battle dragged on for four months.
Even worse is the sheer wreckage of equipment. Seven hundred vehicles? I know Putin will just drag more out of storage, but the deeper he digs the worse his yield. Unfortunately for him, Russia only builds 50-60 T-90s a year, meaning that to scale-up he’s going to needs lots of super-specialized machinery. Maybe China will lend him a hand, but also maybe not. Xi kind-a has his own problems to deal with these days.
Ukrainian forces reportedly shot down three Russian fighter aircraft—two Su-34s and one Su-35—over Donetsk Oblast on February 17, likely having committed scarce air defense assets to help cover the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Avdiivka.
And Ukraine just keeps running up their tab. Lord above, guys. Calm it down. Those jets are irreplaceable.
Of course the Kremlin only deployed these so close to the line because Ukrainian AA has been unresponsive lately. Ukraine’s been suffering ammunition shortages, meaning the US House of Representatives needs to get its collective asses back in DC to pass this fucking bill. This situation will only worsen if MAGA continues to dither.
Russian forces appear to have temporarily established limited and localized air superiority and were able to provide ground troops with close air support during the final days of their offensive operation to capture Avdiivka, likely the first time that Russian forces have done so in Ukraine.
Word is Russia’s chucking seventy glide bombs a day at Ukraine, though that number is likely to drop. While temporarily establishing localized air superiority in concerning, especially if Russia can repeat it somewhere else, I’d like to know if the 2 Su-34 and 1 Su-35 shot down reported today was real before I pass judgement. If those were real kills, then it means Ukraine sprung a trap. And considering the scattered messaging by the milibloggers space, it's looking like there's some truth to the rumors. Something happened, at any rate.
Russian sources largely characterized the Ukrainian withdrawal as disorganized and costly and claimed that Russian forces managed to encircle large Ukrainian groups in Avdiivka, but ISW has observed no evidence supporting these Russian claims.
All evidence points to Ukraine performing a successful withdrawal. I’m certain there were a few hiccups, but considering retreats are one of the most difficult maneuvers, I’d say Ukraine pulled it off with aplomb. No major encirclements; no mass surrenders; and no breakthroughs. Altogether 10/10 Ukraine stuck the landing.
We’ll have to wait and see where the line stabilizes next. Ukraine built another tier of defensive fortifications for just this sort of eventuality.
Ukrainian Zaporizhia Oblast Head Ivan Fedorov stated that Russian occupation authorities are creating military camps to teach children military skills, and that schools in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast are functioning as propaganda and militarization centers.[65]
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
So Putin arrested 350 people for laying flowers in front of rocks. Will these arrests be enough to deter further demonstrations?
Join the conversation of on /r/TheNuttySpectacle!