The Peanut Gallery: November 7, 2023
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation.
For newcomers, this is an amateur's take on the ISW daily bullet points. I know nothing.
The Nutty Spectacle now has a logo! Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces transferred a limited number of armored vehicles to the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast and are continuing larger-than-usual ground operations on the east bank with a light infantry grouping of roughly battalion size.
Okay, I think I've figured it out. I think I've got this whole damn puzzle solved.
The problem Zaluzhnyi outlined in his essay mentioned an inability to move in secret, right? Neither Ukraine nor Russia can shift equipment around subtly enough to launch a surprise offensive. Everyone knows everything--that has been the defining feature of this war--and that also means it's impossible to effectively deploy heavy equipment. That's why the Kremlin is using human wave attacks, and that's why Ukraine relies so heavily on small squad-based strikes. The first is a tidal wave of bodies, and the second is small enough to retain the element of surprise.
So if subtlety is out, what about incrementalism? Seems to me that's Zaluzhnyi's new plan: slowly but surely deploy equipment to the other side of the Dnipro in the hopes of hiding a military buildup within a mass of reports over an extended period of time. The plan is clever and it takes advantage of the Information Age's bottleneck: processing capacity.
But I think cloaking movements in noise is only half the answer to the puzzle. Ironically the other piece is a practice Putin uses often. Ukraine needs to choke the Russian information space with so much bullshit that it's unable to differentiate fact from fiction.
This is a balloon of an Abrams tank. Looks cheap as fuck, right? But gave me an idea. This is an inflatable shipping container It is large enough to house an Abrams MBT. What's stopping Ukraine from printing several hundred thousand of these things and then scattering them across the front line? Go full Three Card Monte: make field after field of inexpensive decoys, all easily disprovable, but when combined together impossible to decipher. Weave the inside out of faraday fabric.
Then, when Russia learns it's good and pointless to blow them up, zip up the APCs / tanks / whatever in an inflatable shipping container and stick it with all the rest. As long as a balloon costs less than an artillery shell then Ukraine comes out on top.
And that's my r/NonCredibleDefense take for the day.
A prominent pro-war Russian milblogger who is typically optimistic about Russian capabilities expressed a relatively pessimistic assessment of the war and emphasized the need for the Kremlin to fully mobilize the Russian economy and defense industrial base (DIB) to a wartime footing to win.
Like Girkin has been saying for over a year now. No wonder that guy is in jail. He was objectively correct and in Russia that's a fucking crime.
Zaluzhnyi’s essay appears to have prompted even the most positive Russian milbloggers to make more straight and honest assessments about the Russian war effort.
Like a dagger into the heart of the Kremlin's information blackout. Zaluzhnyi's frank and honest appraisal of Ukraine's capabilities has had a knock-on effect that's made it acceptable for milbloggers to kinda-maybe-sorta criticize their government. They are acknowledging they are struggling, that greater degrees of mobilization may be required.
Mapower-wise, sure, definitely, but what about economically? I don't think the Kremlin can push it any harder than they already have. Their interest rate is something like 15% and will likely climb still higher before January. Tensions between Israel and the Arab World are cooling; oil prices are falling; and the Ruble is struggling to stay below a ₽100:$1 ratio. Economically it seems to me they're fully deployed, so mobilizing more people likely won't fix Russia's problems.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, in eastern Zaporizhia Oblast, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and reportedly advanced in some areas.
We saw another day of mostly static lines. Advances around Avdiivka were marginal, at best (and claimed by RF milbloggers), and it feels to me like the offensive is petering out.
A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces have switched to a “creeping offensive” in the Avdiivka direction after Russian forces conducted a “heavy onslaught” in the first days of attacks, suggesting that the pace of Russian offensive operations in this area have slowed.
Last week the milbloggers hyped up the resumption of the Avdiivka offensive but nothing happened. That seemed to me like a notable screwup in coordination between the officer's wishes (who are the milblogger's informants) and the boots on the ground. Since then it's been fits and starts on the Russian offensive, mostly fits, without any real sense of cohesion or focus.
Still too soon to say, though.
A Russian battalion comprised of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) will likely deploy to Ukraine in the near future in an apparent violation of the Geneva Convention on Prisoners of War.
Manpower problems. That's the only explanation. There's a reason they didn't use this shit extensively earlier in the war; it's because those people will surrender the moment they get the chance.
The Ukrainian strike on a Russian shipyard in Kerch, occupied Crimea on November 4 significantly damaged a Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) naval vessel.
ISW now says the Askold is totaled!
Russian and Ukrainian sources posted photos on November 7 showing significant damage to the Askold Project 22800 Karakurt-class Kalibr missile carrier corvette that will likely render it inoperable for the foreseeable future.
Ha! Strike one more corvette off the BSF's roster.
Israeli forces entered the northern outskirts of al Shati refugee camp in the northwestern Gaza Strip, according to local and Axis of Resistance-affiliated reporting as well as geolocated footage.
The al Shati neighborhood (I'm not calling it a "refugee camp") is directly north of the Al Shifa Hospital. That hospital houses Hamas' HQ and appears to be the foci for Israel's attack. They are beelining for the place, though it's still unclear what will happen once they get there. Are they going to place it under siege? Shell it? Or is this going to be a room-by-room kind of thing?
What happens if Hamas rigged it to blow? That's just the kind of bullshit they'd pull.
Man, this war is fucking ugly and I hate it.
CTP-ISW recorded seven indirect fire attacks into Israel, five of which targeted Israeli military facilities.
Hezbollah is back to attacking civilians, which, and this feels fucked up to say, I think is a good sign. It means they're back to terrorism and hybrid warfare; they're not acting as if they're planning some all-out assault.
I still wish they would cut it out, though. And on that topic...
Iranian officials are continuing their attempts to rally the Arab and Muslim world against Israel.
Even they've got to recognize that their pan-Arab Jihad isn't going to happen. This isn't a holy war; it's a humanitarian crisis, and the more Arab leaders sign on to humanitarian aid, the worse this looks for Iran. Their argument loses legitimacy with every truck of humanitarian aid.
Nevertheless, Iran keeps trying,
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for four attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria.
These attacks are not acceptable. I understand Biden is waiting for Israel to finish with Gaza City, but he can at least send a F-35 or two, can't he? Maybe a couple terrorists go boom? Just one F-35? An F-16? A Ukrainian in an F-16? Call it a training exercise that got out of hand, that way it isn't our fault. It'll be our "proxy".
Thank you for enduring today's rant. The Chonhar Bridge Happy Fun Time Betting Pool remains ongoing.
Kremlin-appointed Commissioner on Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova advertised several benefit schemes targeting children in occupied Ukraine as part of the "A Country for Children" strategic program.
'Q' for the Community:
Heavy equipment across the Dnipro! What happens now in your estimation?