Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Today we seem to know little more about conditions in Belgorod than we did yesterday.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Russian forces may be currently committing tactical and operational reserves to fighting in eastern Ukraine in an effort to maintain and potentially intensify the tempo of ongoing Russian offensive operations.
Mashovets’ reporting about the transfer of elements of the DNR’s 10th Tank Regiment to southwest of Donetsk City and elements of the 1st Guards Tank Army’s (GTA) 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment to the Lyman direction are notable as these elements were likely reserves in other directions where Russian forces are conducting offensive operations.
Folks, ChatGPT says that accounts for something like fifteen thousand of the Kremlin’s finest, shoving themselves at Lyman. That is a significant chunk of Putin’s muscle as these are some of his best equipped and trained units in his formations. We’re talking tanks, APCs, and every bit of still-functioning artillery. The crème de la crème, essentially. Or what’s left of it.
Two things about this concern me,
If it’s true, if Putin really scents blood, then it’s because of America’s failure to deliver upon our promises. We have a duty to stand by Ukraine, one which we fail every day we delay our obligation.
If it’s an act of desperation, one final push, then it’s because his regime is collapsing right before our eyes. Putin’s amazing plate-spinning act may soon come to a crashing end.
Fuck the first for obvious reasons. But I’m also terrified of the second.
Life ain’t look so good for ol’ Putin. All his plates are crashing down around him. In the lost all semblance of control over the Black Sea; failed to replace the A-50 over the Sea of Azov; came down with a sudden case of exploding refineries; needs to contend with refugees from Belgorod; and can only watch the Czech’s hand Ukraine a shitload of artillery shells.
None of that is even considering the collective West’s hawkish turn in rhetoric. I mean just today Macron floated sending troops to Ukraine. It’s a threshold I never thought we’d reach, yet here we are...about to step into the most dangerous phase of the war.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 14 that unspecified Ukrainian units that have been deployed to frontline for a long time have started rotations.
It’s this kind of thing that makes me think it’s the second option. Rotations are tough, typically performed in a lull, and usually in areas that are relatively quiet. They’re not the sort of maneuvers you performed when one’s back is to the wall. Remember, Putin committed his reserves to the Lyman direction, so if Ukraine can perform routine rotations then they aren't buckling. If they were then they'd have committed these units already.
What interests me are what a rotation typically implies: full replacement. There’ll be a brief window when Ukraine effectively doubles their manpower and equipment, meaning there’s an opportunity for surprise if Ukraine chooses to take it. Shuffling units can hide a lot of buildup, and with shit popping off in Belgorod now seems like a damn fine time to rotate units in Kherson and Zaporizhya.
Current count: 177 (/213D) signatures of the required 218. All current signatories are Democrat.
Nobody signed today, which is a fantastic sign. It means the rumors of a negotiation between Mike Johnson and McConnell’s half of the faction are progressing to the Democrat’s satisfaction. It means that future commitments as lend-lease rumor we heard may be the framework of a compromise. It’s just the sort of five-steps-forward, two-steps-back sort of progress which built this nation.
I’m okay with making future commitments entirely lend-lease. It answers the moronic question, “Where is our money going?” with a neat little bow: it’s all accounted for—in fact this aid isn’t just a good deed, it’s a fucking asset. There’s your God damn incentive: make it profitable. Put the plutocracy’s greed to work by giving them a reason to care about the war. Hand Ukraine a charge card with a little infinity symbol on it, escort them to the armory, and then just stand behind the register. It’s that easy.
Later—much later we can figure out how to wipe the debt. But right now Ukraine needs bullets, and I don’t think she cares about the conditions of the deal so much as that it goes through. It is in America’s best interest to broaden lend-lease as wide as we fucking can--this shit means profit. Worried about the debt? Fine. Let’s make a buck doing what America does best: let’s sell some mother fucking guns.
Get it done.
Russian authorities in Moscow Oblast created “training programs” for people potentially considering adopting illegally deported Ukrainian children in Russia.[80] The program reportedly falsely conflates Ukrainian and Russian culture. The program reportedly tells participants that their main objective is to create a “second homeland” for Ukrainian children in Russia and that they will need to overcome “difficulties in international differences.” Participants of the training program must undergo interviews in which Russian authorities ask if they have Ukrainian friends and relatives. ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children likely amounts to a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community: /r/TheNuttySpectacle!
Which one do you think is more likely reason for Putin committing his reserves? The option one I listed above, or the option two?
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