The Peanut Gallery: Putin Literally Cancels Christmas. Fox News Silent.
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation.
For newcomers, this is an amateur's take on the ISW daily bullet points. I know nothing.
Russian forces are likely trying to regain the theater-level initiative in Ukraine by conducting several simultaneous offensive operations in eastern Ukraine, although it remains unclear if Russian forces will be able to fully regain the initiative as Ukrainian forces maintain pressure on critical areas of the front.
Dear Putin,
Why? Even you have to recognize this isn’t going to work.
Sincerely,
A Confused Bystander.
Russia is so damn frantic to regain the initiative that they’re losing ground everywhere else on the front. Krynky is solidifying; Avdiivka is going nowhere; and the only place they’re making any progress is Bakhmut, which I’m half-convinced is intentional.
Ukraine weakened their positions in that region awfully fast. They’ve got ground to give, after all. If Ukraine lures Putin in with offered meterage, Putin might overcommit to Bakhmut. And Bakhmut is as far as possible away from Kherson Oblast. It’s not like Russia can defend the land they take near Bakhmut anyway. Now that Ukraine cleared it of mines, there’s nothing stopping them from just rolling back through.
Crazy idea: Plant C4 or something in all the rear defenses, then feign a retreat; get the overeager Russian officers hungry for promotion to overextend, then counterattack with tanks. Boom, maneuver warfare.
Ukrainian President's Office Head Andriy Yermak stated on November 13 that Ukrainian forces have established a "foothold" on the east (left) bank of Kherson Oblast.
Ho, fuck! That’s a dagger into the heart of the RF information space. Ukraine claimed it was across the Dnipro before Russia, devastating the Kremlin’s pending narrative. If Ukraine made this claim then they feel confident they can maintain it. Worse for Putin, Ukraine accomplished this feat mid-Russia's “offensive” in Avdiivka.
And I believe that technically means Russia lost more territory over the course of this offensive than they gained. Let’s take a tally.
Moscow took a slag heap for a localized tactical advantage.
Kyiv took a small foothold in a critical strategic region.
Only Kyiv’s seizure generates additional strategic opportunities. The threat of a general naval invasion requires far more personnel to defend against than a couple artillery on an extra-tall hill.
I suppose it’s not over yet, though, so maybe Russia can secure something big enough to justify this mass suicide.
Ukraine's western partners announced new efforts to continue providing Ukraine with military and financial aid.
Deutschland is the MVP this month! Fuck yeah, Germany!
They sent Ukraine another ten Leopard tanks, along with announcing their intention to double their contribution over the next year to eight billion euros. It’s a pretty big jump, especially considering they’re still trying to rebuild their military. They only unified in the eighties and haven’t really had much reason to invest heavily in defense. America’s been bitching about it for years.
Not anymore, though. It seems to me every country in Europe is buying up as many guns as they can get their hands on.
The Russian government is likely attempting to force Google to cease operations in Russia.
Huh. A world without Google...kinda weird to think about, right? How the hell is Russia going to function as a twenty-first century country if they must rely on shitty state-built search sites? Google is a titan for a reason.
The horrible thing is, though, that Russia does have a state-owned option for most of Google’s services. It’s part of their information-tyranny. They control the messages the Russian people send, what they see in their search engine, their phones operating systems—everything. Every aspect which makes up modern digital landscape is tailored to the Kremlin’s specifications. It’s 1984 but if the Party could read Winston Smith’s mind.
Russian occupation officials are beginning to announce that occupied areas of Ukraine will not hold significant public Christmas and New Years’ celebrations due to security concerns.
Putin is canceling Christmas. Literally. He is literally the Grinch. The difference being though that if Putin’s heart grows three sizes it’s going to be because something’s going through it.
Hamas is conducting a delaying operation against the advancing Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip to achieve strategic and operational effects. Hamas’ delay mission generates strategic effects by helping it rally support for Hamas among its partners, within the region, and internationally. Hamas’ delay effort also supports Hamas’ operational objectives within the Gaza Strip, which include preserving essential capabilities and key leaders and setting conditions to conduct an insurgency against Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip if necessary.
I think the possibility of a ceasefire went out the window as soon as Israel entered Gaza City. That’s when Israel committed to ending this.
Hamas (in a further demonstration that their plan is FUBAR) continue to conduct ‘delaying operations’ in the face of Israeli advances; they strike, hold for a bit, and gradually retreat to encourage Israel to overextend; then pop! out they come like gophers with RPGs on their furry little shoulders.
It’ll likely require Israel to sustain constant vigilance in their rear line.
Israeli forces continued their advance toward al Shifa Hospital from the north and south. Israeli forces continued clearing operations north of Gaza City. Palestinian militias conducted two indirect fire attacks on Israeli forces in the central Gaza Strip. The IDF opened two humanitarian corridors leading to Salah al Din Street for civilians to evacuate the northern Gaza Strip.
Two humanitarian corridors! Damn, that’s got to take some security confidence to sustain, especially on the western side. Israel must firmly think that it has control over that segment of the city, or else they wouldn’t expose themselves to the risk of civilian traffic.
Every civilian who leaves weakens Hamas’ ability to sustain its human shield. And they ain’t happy about it.
An “unspecified” forces attacked civilians attempting to evacuate from al Shifa hospital today. ISW was vague on the details.
A surgeon at the hospital told the Wall Street Journal that unspecified forces fired on civilians attempting to leave the hospital on November 13.
And with that, the implied hostage situation becomes a literal hostage situation. Not that it wasn’t obvious where this was going.
Iranian state media recirculated Western reports on November 14 that the Joe Biden administration could approve a sanctions waiver that would enable Iran to access $10 billion worth of frozen Iranian financial assets in Iraq.
Go fuck yourself, Iran.
I hope to God Biden doesn’t pay tribute. If he does then he only encourages this sort of behavior from Iran in the future.
But I don’t think he’s going to do it. Biden has shown a calm steadfastness throughout these crises, both Ukraine and Israel; he doesn’t shove, but he also doesn’t give ground. Yeah, I wish he’d move faster, but at least the steps he takes are calculated, instead of some reactionary tantrum. I’ll take Senior Slow Dancing over Donald’s Delightful Daycare any day of the week.
Thank you for enduring today's rant. The Chonhar Bridge Happy Fun Time Betting Pool remains ongoing.
Kremlin-appointed Commissioner on Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova advertised several benefit schemes targeting children in occupied Ukraine as part of the "A Country for Children" strategic program.
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