The Peanut Gallery: Russian Artillery Fire Halves in Kupyansk
February 4, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation.
Please remember that I know nothing.
I recommend everyone just breathe. Shit’s tense lately, and there’s a lot of misinformation floating around. Any leadership shakeups will be announced by Kyiv and Kyiv alone, not extrapolated from an interpretation of an interview. Take a look at the referenced quote:
"Of course, a reboot and a new beginning is necessary. When we talk about this, I mean the replacement of a number of state leaders, not only in the military sphere. I am thinking about this replacement [of Zaluzhnyi], it is true. This issue concerns the entire management group, who drives the country's car ," Zelenskyу said.
The “[]” means it is the author’s interpretation of a rambling segment. Essentially when you see those brackets, it’s an inference. They’re supposed to be used extremely sparingly, or (as I prefer to use them), to add context. They are not meant to fill in an individual’s name, because it could mean anyone. Literally fucking anyone. To do so is journalistic malfeasance (if there’s such a thing anymore) and technically libel...I think. I don’t know because I’m not a lawyer. Someone should ask Legal Eagle.
In any case, until Kyiv makes it official, it’s just Russians pouring salt in the wound. It is not real, nor does it matter, until it happens, you dig? Rather you should be asking yourself, “Why the fuck is everything so public?”
The Russian defense industrial base (DIB) is unlikely able to fully support Russia’s reserve manpower despite Russia’s ability to sustain its current tempo of operations and ongoing efforts to expand the Russian DIB.
It’s actually rather interesting, every number cited is for tanks. Lots and lots and lots of tanks. Check it:
Mashovets stated that the Russian DIB is able to produce about 250-300 “new and thoroughly modernized” tanks per year. Mashovets stated that Russian forces can also overhaul about 250-300 tanks that have been in long-term storage or sustained battlefield damage per year.
So we’re looking at roughly replacement numbers annually. Sorry to say folks, but hollow T-90s are relatively easy to mass produce. Something made all those T-72s in the first place, after all, and a tank’s a tank, right?
Or does that even matter anymore? I’m seeing daily footage of these things getting KO’d by drones, drones which come in at a thousandth of the cost. That’s the Kremlin’s primary problem: Ukraine doesn’t need artillery if every step they take threatens death from above.
Russian milbloggers continued to criticize Russian authorities’ failure to properly equip Russian forces with drones and electronic warfare (EW) systems in response to a recent unsuccessful Russian mechanized assault near Novomykhailivka, Donetsk Oblast.
The worst part is that Ukraine has likely already developed the solution to this countermeasure. EW jams the signal in, which, okay, whatever. Run everything on /r/CombatFootage through an AI and I’m sure it’ll find itself a target.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to face the authoritarian’s dilemma, whereby his authoritarian regime is itself systematically preventing him from receiving accurate information about military-political realities in Russia.
It’s called the asshole tax. Nobody wants to tell you nothing if you’re a grimy little shit faucet. Ain’t no reason to.
Spokesperson for the Ukrainian “Steel Border” border detachment Ivan Shevtsov observed that Russian forces have nearly doubled their artillery fire along the Kupyansk-Lyman line since late 2023 because weather conditions on the frontline allowed for the intensive use of artillery and drones.[24] Shevtsov added that Russian forces are unlikely to be experiencing ammunition shortages given the increase in shelling and are largely attacking in the Kupyansk direction with infantry.
Here we have a ‘man on the ground’ saying Russian reduction in artillery fire is due to the weather. While yesterday,
Ukrainian Eastern Group of Forces Spokesperson Captain Ilya Yevlash, however, stated on February 2 that Russian forces have almost halved their daily rate of artillery fire in the Kupyansk and Lyman directions due to poor weather conditions and other unspecified issues.
It’s an interesting contradiction, unfortunately I don’t know what to make of it. Intentionally or not, Ukraine just cut off a potential negative narrative for the Kremlin before it could take root.
Whatever the reason for the conflict, the two narratives seem to agree that there’s been a drastic reduction in Russian artillery fire. That’s significant because this is supposed to be the site of the Kremlin’s big offensive. I don’t know what kind of weather can stop an artillery shell, but I’d assumed it would be higher than 20 mph. Maybe it’s fuckin’ with their drones.
Ukrainian officials continue international efforts aimed at returning Ukrainian citizens whom Russian authorities illegally deported to Russia.
If you want to support these efforts you can do so by giving to Ukraine.
'Q’ For the Community:
What challenges does the "authoritarian's dilemma" pose for decision-making processes in authoritarian regimes, and how might this affect military and political outcomes?
Join the conversation over on /r/TheNuttySpectacle.