The Peanut Gallery: Russian Gasoline Shortfall Intensifies - Kremlin Begs Kazakhstan for Fuel
April 8, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Thank you for enduring our brief intermission. We now return to our regularly scheduled programming. Today I had beans for dinner, so we’re going to discuss gas.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil refineries are reportedly forcing Russia to seek gasoline imports from Kazakhstan. [...]
Reuters reported on April 2, citing its own data, that constant Ukrainian drone strikes have shut down about 14 percent of Russia’s overall oil refining capacity.[3] Reuters also previously reported on March 27 that Russia has significantly increased its gasoline imports from Belarus following Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries and that Russia has imported 3,000 metric tons of gasoline from Belarus in the first half of March as compared to 590 metric tons in February and no gasoline imports in January.
Y’all remember when Russia used to export gasoline? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
That ain’t the case no more, is it? Now Putin’s banned export and they’re pulling in from Belarus, Kazakhstan, and everywhere else they can reach. And they have their 14% plummet in refining output to thank for this turn of events.
That number? 14%? It’s a bit misleading. You see it and you think to yourself, ‘86% left to go,’ but that’s the wrong mindset. Instead, you should think to yourself: ‘What do the energy policies of a “gas station masquerading as a country” look like?’ Because I’ll give you a hint: they’re typically not keen on renewables.
Most of what Russia produced was for domestic consumption, right around 85% judging by this rapid pivot to import. Cheap access to gasoline encouraged deepening reliance. Now either Putin is preparing for supplies to fall permanently in the negative, or they're already in the red. Right around now the average Russian farmer is throwing open their barn doors to kickoff planting season, only to discover they need gasoline to run their tractors. Many may choose to let their fields lay fallow.
Ukraine didn’t just knockout Putin’s healthy 15% profit margin; as they continue to restrict supply the effects will ripple through the Russian economy.
A shortfall on gas will lead to an import of food, which will lead to a migration of people, which will only exacerbate the existing labor shortage. Gasoline is a critical component of Russian life, irreplaceable, so every liter of production Ukraine eliminates must be balanced by import. There ain't no getting around it. Putin’s once profitable little side-hustle is now a hemorrhaging financial tumor.
Well done, Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) indirectly suggested that it may have been responsible for an explosion that disabled a Russian Baltic Fleet small missile carrier at the naval base in Baltiysk, Kaliningrad Oblast on April 7.
Don’t know if I should give Ukraine credit for this one, though...
Everyone know where Kaliningrad is? If you don’t, then click this link. It’s an artifact of the Cold War, a piece which Stalin carved out to better separate the Baltic States from the bourgeoise swine to the West. Back in the Soviet Union the province made sense...sort of...I mean at least the borders were open. These days, however, Kaliningrad is an enclave completely severed from the wider Russian Federation. It’s less of a Russian state so much as a platform to conduct hybrid warfare.
Yep. Kaliningrad be the place where Putin's been doing all that EM harassment, knocking out guidance on jets and fucking with cell phones. Putin’s also been using it to shoot off missile through Polish airspace. Now I have zero doubt Ukraine wanted that missile carrier gone...but I doubt they were alone.
Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the Russian Cabinet of Ministers and Russian machine construction company KONAR JSC to increase the production of components for the domestic machine tools industry, likely as part of ongoing efforts to expand the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and mitigate the effects of international sanctions.
Okay...so how’s Putin going to resolve his manpower shortage? Because that’s the actual bottleneck, and that ain’t got no easy solution. Scaling up production of machine tools will take months (if not years) to generate benefit.
Now that’s not to say I believe this is a terrible investment, only that I doubt it will be relevant through the remainder of this war.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur stated that Estonia can purchase artillery shells and missiles worth two to three million euros (about 2.1 billion to 3.2 billion USD) outside of Europe and deliver them to Ukraine in the next two months if allied nations help fund the effort.[73]
Pevkur stated that European Union (EU) states can provide up to 2.5 million projectiles to Ukraine in 2024 between the ongoing EU shell commitment, the Czech effort to source artillery shells from outside the EU, and additional UK efforts.[74] Lithuania also transferred an unspecified number of M577 Command Post Carrier vehicles to Ukraine that reached the country as of April 6.
Woah! First the Czechs now the Estonians?
The supplier must be the United States. Not even South Korea has the excess stockpiles to provide that much ammunition...at least I don’t think so...
Either way, fantastic job, Estonia! The more ammo we hand Ukraine the sooner this whole thing can end.
Recent discourse among select Russian milbloggers highlights contradictory Russian rhetoric in the Russian information space between narratives that seek to portray Russian forces as more capable than Ukrainian forces and other narratives that seek to criticize the Russian military for shortcomings that result in high Russian infantry casualties.
Periodically a video appears showcasing the true state of Russia’s army. This time it was a vid of a twenty-or-so soldiers riding on top of a Russian tank like a Bangladeshi train. The tank struck a mine, then the entire squad dismounted and ran away. But now this little fuckup is making the rounds through the Russian information space. Everyone’s chiming in with sage advice ranging from ‘don’t ride on top of tanks,’ to ‘don’t drive over mines.’ Real valuable stuff.
Unfortunately, the milblogger’s little pearls of wisdom fail to address the core problem enabling these fuck ups: a lack of discipline and standardization. An army can’t address these sorts of problems if its command structure resembles the hierarchy of a prison gang.
Ukrainian officials continue to warn that Russian forces are systematically and increasingly using chemical weapons and other likely-banned chemical substances in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Support Forces Command stated on April 5 that Ukrainian forces have recorded 371 cases of Russian forces using munitions containing chemical substances during the last month and 1,412 cases of Russian forces using chemical weapons between February 2023 and March 2024.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
Gasoline looks increasingly hard to come by within the Russian Federation. What sorts of knock-on effects do you anticipate from a deepening shortfall as we move into spring?
Curiosity sparks revolution. Join us as we rant and rave and learn together. By subscribing, you're not just staying informed — you're choosing to join a conversation. Share this article, talk about it. Let's change the world.