The Peanut Gallery: Russian Mapgate Scandal Throws Military Decisions into Question.
Select Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian commanders may be making operational and tactical decisions using maps of the battlefield in Ukraine that differ from tactical reality.
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Select Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian commanders may be making operational and tactical decisions using maps of the battlefield in Ukraine that differ from tactical reality.
Translation: The RF MoD is tripping balls.
You ever want something to be real? Really, really wanted it to be real...like a nine-year-old staring at a fireplace at 11:59 on Christmas Eve? I have.
Dreams can make us all do funny things, but few of us will kill people to make them happen.
The Russian milblogger claimed that Russian personnel on the front have access to the “real” map and that Russian commanders order Russian forces to conduct routine assaults to make gains that align the “real” map with the Russian General Staff’s map.
The RF MoD will kill. Those at the top have self-selected for a willingness to murder to maintain their position. That’s intense. It also speaks to a monumental fissure in the Russian chain of communication.
If the Russian General Staff’s official map is inaccurately demonstrating the true front lines, then they are not communicating that information to Putin. It also means that every regional commander has a piece of the puzzle, but overall command does not have access to the complete picture. They’re making decisions with several faulty assumptions, meaning they cannot accurately assess the battlefield, so are likely making risky bets based upon false-positive indicators. This can lead to irrational decision making, hopeless offensives that have no chance of succeeding because they’re built upon a faulty assessment of one’s own strength.
Offensives like Avdiivka.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 8 and advanced in some areas.
The information environment (and soil) around Avdiivka is so damn muddy that nobody seems to know what’s going on. Some milbloggers say it’s hopeless, others chant the party line; it’s a mess, and Ukraine isn’t saying much.
What they do say, however, is rather telling,
Ukrainian Tavriisk Group of Forces Spokesperson Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun stated on November 7 that Russian forces in the Avdiivka area lost 585 personnel within the past day during light infantry attacks without armored vehicle support.
Almost six hundred people a day, on one part of the front, over a hamlet, guarding a modest town. That’s almost my entire high school face down in the mud; day...after day...after day...Where do you even put all those bodies? How the hell do you even collect them?
There’s rumor of a third offensive wave brewing, but if Russia is losing six hundred people a day here then I think it’s already happening. That’s significant.
Ukraine believes Russia committed some 40k “reserves” to this shitshow, which at least implies they plan to keep this up. It might be a shooting gallery, but it’s the kind of shooting gallery that doesn’t stop, and if you miss enough targets you die.
They’re attacking with light infantry because they’re running low on hardware. And that problem seems to be getting damn near universal.
Russia is reportedly attempting to reacquire components for military equipment from states to which it previously sold the equipment, including Egypt, Pakistan, Brazil, and Belarus.
Russia is calling in favors for helicopter engines, old broken ones which likely need extensive refurbishment. These are engines they essentially gave to other countries to study, a sort of ‘tech for influence’ sort of dealio.
WSJ reported that Russia offered to forgive Egyptian debt and continue wheat supplies to Egypt in exchange for the (150) engines and that Russia also threatened to remove its arms industry advisers from Egypt if Egypt did not agree to return the engines.
I can’t help but feel this sudden thirst for components has something to do with the explosions at the Berdyansk Airfield. Nine helicopters was a pretty-big chip off the bulwark keeping back Ukraine from Crimea. And the threat of further ATACMs strikes makes them a non-entity as they’re based in Russia now, meaning response times are dogshit.
Ukrainian partisans and military intelligence assassinated a prominent Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) official accused of conducting war crimes in occupied Ukraine.
Boom! One less shithead in the world.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly avoid centering his 2024 presidential campaign on the war in Ukraine and will rather focus on Russia’s alleged stability and criticisms of the West.
Ah, I see what’s going on here: Putin is going with the classic ‘Don’t look up!’ campaign slogan. It’s an oldy-but-a-goodie. “Nothing to see here! Pay no attention to the clusterfuck out west! It’s the fault of the United States and their globalist friends.”
And the Russian people seem content to go along with it. At least for now.
The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed responsibility for three attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria on November 8. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq has claimed 45 attacks targeting US forces in the Middle East since October 18.
You know what I appreciate about Biden? He doesn’t say shit. Not a damn thing. He just does what needs to be done.
Iran woke up this morning to find a US nuclear submarine somewhere in the Persian Gulf. I imagine the thing is under orders to make itself known and then go quiet somewhere. That shit has got to be terrifying for the IRGC navy.
It’s also the right move. We struck Iranian assets today in Syria, meaning Biden is now demonstrating a willingness to escalate. And given this bullshit,
The Houthi military spokesperson claimed that the Houthis shot down a US drone over Yemeni territory on November 8.
We might be inclined to escalate a little bit more tomorrow morning.
Hamas forces north of Gaza City conducted hit-and-run attacks that harassed Israeli forces, which supports CTP-ISW's previous assessment that Hamas units in the northern Gaza Strip are screening a main defensive effort in central Gaza City.
The ISW believes that Hamas gave ground intentionally. I agree with that assessment up until Israel took the al Shati Neighborhood. That seemed a point Hamas really wanted to defend, but then Israel turned it to glass and everything went quiet.
Hamas political leaders continue to call for Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) to increase its involvement in the Hamas-Israel war to alleviate the pressure that Hamas is facing in Gaza.
And LH with a smile and thumbs said, “I got you, fam!” as they dropped a few mortars on a border town. Absolutely stunning. I’m sure that’s exactly what Hamas had in mind.
Now just because LH decided to say “no thanks” to this one, doesn’t mean they’re good people. When all this is said and done, the West is going to want payment for shit like this,
Brazilian police working with Mossad arrested LH operatives who were planning an attack on Jewish targets in Brazil on November 8.
It’s raw hatred of Jews: that’s the only motivating force. What has Brazil got to do with this whole nonsense? Why draw foreign Jewish people into this conflict if their war isn’t one of extermination?
Thank you for enduring today's rant. The Chonhar Bridge Happy Fun Time Betting Pool remains ongoing.
Kremlin-appointed Commissioner on Children's Rights Maria Lvova-Belova advertised several benefit schemes targeting children in occupied Ukraine as part of the "A Country for Children" strategic program.
'Q' for the Community:
How long do you think Russia can sustain its pressure on Avdiivka?