The Peanut Gallery: Russian Missiles Speed Ukraine's Journey to Green Energy - Ukrainian Coal Power Plant Destroyed in Expensive Barrage
April 11, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Today we’re coming back to Earth.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Russia destroyed the largest power-generating plant in Ukraine’s Kyiv region in a missile attack on Thursday, as President Volodomyr Zelensky accused the West of “turning a blind eye” to his country’s need for more air defenses.
Ukraine’s Air Force said it shot down 18 of the incoming missiles and 39 of the drones. Russia fired 82 missiles and drones in total, including six hypersonic Kinzhal missiles – none of which Ukraine’s air defenses were able to down.
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on April 11 that Russian strikes, not including the April 10–11 strike series, have disrupted 80 percent of the generation capacity of DTEK, Ukraine’s largest private energy company, which supplies about 20 percent of Ukraine’s power.[9] The WSJ reported that DTEK’s chief executive, Maksym Timchenko, stated that DTEK spent $110 million repairing damage during the war’s first year and that it will cost more than twice that much to fix the most recent destruction caused by Russian strikes.
Today was a firm reminder as to how chasing rabbits usually leads to a hole in the ground. This one just happened to have once been a very expensive thermal reactor. My condolences to Ukraine.
I doubt Ukraine would have refrained from protecting the thermal reactor if they’d been able. Naturally this implies their SAM limitations are very real, ammunition and launcher included. While the TPP was an environmental abomination, burning both coal and gas, its necessary decommissioning should have occurred on Ukraine’s timetable. Look, I’m certain Ukraine is grateful for Russia’s enthusiastic stress-testing of their power grid, I doubt they’re looking to go green in the middle of a war.
Unfortunately Ukraine might not have a choice. If the Wall Street Journal is to be believed, they’ve lost a good 15% of their domestic generative capacity. That’s got to be a hefty gut punch to their power grid.
Thankfully Europe stepped in and started sharing juice last winter, though I’m uncertain as to the extent that helps. Could be a lot, could be a little—anyone know how these sorts of things work?
The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada adopted a new mobilization law on April 11, a significant step in addressing Ukraine’s manpower challenges amid growing manpower constraints in Ukrainian units defending on the frontline.
Ukrainian Joint Forces and “Khortytsia” Group of Forces Commander Lieutenant General Yuriy Sodol [...] reiterated that [...] Ukraine’s main problems is its manpower challenges and [...] suggested some Ukrainian detachments are undermanned to the point [each] detachment can only defend roughly 20 of the 100 meters a detachment at full end strength is typically able to defend.
Sodol suggested that the Ukrainian military [deploys] three partially manned brigades to cover the same area that one fully manned brigade [...] typically defend[s], forcing Ukraine to allocate additional units to defensive actions that could otherwise be resting in rear areas or preparing for future counteroffensive actions.
Thank you, ISW. I appreciate the context and the severity. Such things enable the conceptualization of a scale by which to weigh new information.
Unlike Putin, Zelensky maintains rotations, though by the sounds of things it's becoming a struggle. Broadened mobilization will enable Ukraine to reinforce and rest exhausted units. Judging by the complete lack of pushback, nobody doubts the laws critical necessity.
I have never been drafted. I’ve never had to face a gun, nor been forced by my country to do anything more onerous than attend a public high school. The threat is there—I filled out my conscription papers so I could vote just like everybody else--but America never asked anything of me. I cannot comprehend the terror those poor Ukrainian men must feel at the prospect of their imminent mobilization. To attend War is to attend one’s own funeral.
But some things are necessary. Some fears must be overcome. I have no doubt the Ukrainian men mobilized today will do what needs to be done to protect those they love. Through their veins pumps the blood of heroes.
Geolocated footage published on April 11 indicates Russian forces recently began operating on the southern part of Velykiy Potemkin island (north of Hola Prystan). Positional fighting continued in east bank Kherson Oblast, including near Krynky.
Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Colonel Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Ukrainian forces typically wound or kill roughly 60 percent of the personnel in Russian assault groups that attack Ukrainian positions in east bank Kherson Oblast.[49]
Sixty percent? Jesus Christ...that is obscene. Putin shoved thousands of his people into that meat grinder, and you’re telling me Ukraine manages to disable sixty percent of those they send each time? How?! What’s so special about Krynky?! How the hell did Ukraine dig in so deep?! I want to know the answers to these questions!
Unfortunately such knowledge is impossible because this is a fucking war. All we can observe is apparent effect, therefore we must proceed with the information before us. Ukraine can hold Krynky, and Ukraine chews up six out of every ten assault group Russia sends. The fact that Russia keeps sending them implies they believe they're gaining the upper hand. But if every assault unit is rendered combat ineffective after an attack, then progress is moot. Ukraine could lose Krynky and come out ahead on Russian corpses alone.
Ukrainian officials continue to warn that Russian forces are systematically and increasingly using chemical weapons and other likely-banned chemical substances in Ukraine. The Ukrainian Support Forces Command stated on April 5 that Ukrainian forces have recorded 371 cases of Russian forces using munitions containing chemical substances during the last month and 1,412 cases of Russian forces using chemical weapons between February 2023 and March 2024.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
Should Ukraine hold on to Krynky? Or should they pull out?
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