The Peanut Gallery: Ten for Ten - Ukraine Downs One Russian Jet per Day for Last Week and a Half
February 24, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Today we’ll return to form.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Ukrainian forces have reportedly shot down two Russian Su-34s on February 27, the tenth downed Russian military aircraft within roughly as many days.
Boy, one would think the announcement of another down Su-34 would get more attention. It’s a huge story, one which seems to be (heh) flying under the radar, but I suppose Putin losing airframes happens so frequently now that it’s barely worth mentioning. Ten days—ten military aircraft. Talk about consistency.
According to Oryx in December, roughly 24 Su-34s were visually confirmed lost out of a pre-war (self-reported) figure of 149 total in active service. The last few days brings that number up to ~31 Su-34s (not count Su-35s & the A-10) meaning Russia at most has 118 Su-34s still in service. At the current rate of loss, they’ll run out somewhere around July. Assuming Russia’s prewar self-reported figure of Su-34s was accurate. And assuming all downed Su-34s were visually captured. And assuming every prewar Su-34 remains in service despite wear and tear under wartime conditions. Jets require replacement parts, parts typically imported, so if something breaks sanctions make replacing it extremely expensive. Also we can’t forget about training a new pilot.
So how many Su-34s can Russia stick in the air? No fucking clue. I do know, however, that Moscow’s resources are limited, and if Ukraine keeps shooting these jets down then eventually they’re going to run out.
And on that topic...
Ihnat stated that Russian forces have not deployed another A-50 over the Sea of Azov since the downing and have increased their use of aerial reconnaissance drones across the theater to compensate.[34]
Huge if sustained. Recon drones aren’t enough to compensate for the loss of a pivotal strategic vantage point. For one, recon drones have a much shorter visual range, and for another, the A-50 wasn’t just a spotter, it coordinated air defense for Kherson, Crimea, Zaporizhiya, and Donetsk theaters. There’s a reason Putin clung so desperately to the Sea of Azov.
Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, explained that there are only six A-50 aircraft left in Russia, and if another one is lost, the Russian military will be unable to operate them continuously.
Source: Budanov in a comment to journalists on the sidelines of Ukraine. Year 2024 forum
Quote: "Six more [left]. [That makes] two complete rotations.
Should another one fall, round-the-clock duty will have to be stopped."
Complex surveillance craft, like the A-50, require hours and hours of maintenance for every hour of flight time. This is not something Russia can skip on, because it’s not the ‘plane’ that needs work, it’s the surveillance system.
Anyone who’s ever tried to do anything in the sciences will, at one point or another, use the word ‘calibration’ one too many times and go subtly insane. It’s the nature of dealing with finicky equipment. If you want the precision to weigh a literal grain of sand, you need sensitive stuff, and that generally involves lots and lots of fine-tuning.
Expensive radars follow the same principle. They’re instruments for measurement, ones which need to be able to see and record everything within six hundred kms of the aircraft. Skip a maintenance cycle and the craft is useless. That’s why Russia needs six, because at any given point five of them are typically on the ground.
Russian forces are attempting to exploit tactical opportunities offered by the Russian seizure of Avdiivka and appear to be maintaining a relatively high tempo of offensive operations aimed at pushing as far as possible in the Avdiivka area before Ukrainian forces establish more cohesive and harder-to-penetrate defensive lines in the area.
Moscow scents opportunity, apparently, and is pushing extra super-duper hard to try and make a breach in the wake of Ukraine’s withdrawal from Avdiivka. Their attacks are coming in larger numbers, occasionally platoon sized (~30 soldiers) and are especially focused in the Avdiivka and Kup’yans’k directions.
Ukraine will likely yield the small satellite suburbs around Avdiivka, choosing to make their next stand along the river which runs through Berychi.
Pull your head out of your ass, Mike Johnson. Ukraine needs America to come through.
Recent developments in Transnistria, the pro-Russian breakaway region of Moldova, are unlikely to pose a military threat to Ukraine and will more likely impact Moldova’s European Union (EU) integration prospects. ISW is amending its warning forecast in light of continued Transnistrian officials’ statements that the upcoming Congress of Transnistrian Deputies will discuss Moldovan economic policies, likely related to changes to Moldova’s Customs Code that went into effect on January 1, 2024.
Economic policies which will likely be harmful to Putin, surprisingly.
Transnistria owes much of its GDP to one guy, Viktor Gushan, who owns roughly 60% of their economy. No joke. Gusham is ex-KGB spy turned rogue oligarch who’s now masquerading as a breakaway state, nominally subservient to the Kremlin.
That ‘nominally’ part is key because Gushan gets most of his money from trade with the EU, trade he only gets because Moldova gets tariff-free access to the EU market. If Moldova abandons Transnistria Gushan will lose access to Europe, and that would seriously fuck with his finances. The discussion on the 29th is supposed to be about trade. I’m very interested in seeing how this story develops.
Russian authorities in Moscow Oblast created “training programs” for people potentially considering adopting illegally deported Ukrainian children in Russia.[80] The program reportedly falsely conflates Ukrainian and Russian culture. The program reportedly tells participants that their main objective is to create a “second homeland” for Ukrainian children in Russia and that they will need to overcome “difficulties in international differences.” Participants of the training program must undergo interviews in which Russian authorities ask if they have Ukrainian friends and relatives. ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children likely amounts to a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
It’s been a long couple of months. How y’all holding up?
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