The Peanut Gallery: The Next Level of Support? Ukraine Could Receive Long-Range ATACMS Missiles, Pending Mike Johnson's Vacation
February 19, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Ukrainian officials reported that Ukrainian forces shot down two more Russian fighter aircraft, a Su-34 and a Su-35S, in eastern Ukraine on the morning of February 19.
Six! Six exploded Russian jets! Ah-Ah-Ah!
I wanted to start with this one because it’s just fantastic news. Three days in a row now—for three days straight, Ukraine has downed at least one jet a day. Ukraine keeps this pace up and soon Putin won’t have an air force.
We are seeing a replay of Ukraine’s campaign against the Black Sea Fleet, this time against Russian aviation. It's the exact same playbook they followed to neuter the Black Sea Fleet, and it’s shaping up to be as effective now as it was then: the elimination of a high-value, militarily critical target; a strike headquarters; and finally wearing down a disorganized rabble. Over the last month Ukraine shot down an A-10, hit the Saki Airfield headquarters, and spent the last three days knocking six planes out of the sky. It shows that Ukraine is preferentially and deliberately weakening Russia’s dominance over their airspace.
Some of you might be asking yourselves, "Storyteller! What about the F-16s! They still a thing?"
I mean...technically? The hypothesis is still good in so far that Russia has not returned to Kherson's airspace, at least going by ISW's reporting. I built that theory on the premise that Ukraine dominating such a wide front such as Kherson would require far too many Patriot batteries for them to consistently maintain long-term. It's been 2.5 months now.
That said, I feel like if Ukraine had Super-Secret F-16s Russia would’ve caught them on camera by now. The fact that they haven’t is either evidence of their phenomenal incompetence, or that the F-16s aren’t real. And honestly I’m having a real hard time deciding between the two.
The White House is reportedly considering the provision of long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine in the event that Congress passes security assistance for Ukraine.
Biden is considering sending long-range ATACMS to Ukraine, as in the super-long ones that go 300km. This would be enormous for Ukraine.
Ukraine’s ability to harry Russian back lines has long been rate-limited by Storm Shadow missile availability, those wonderful little things that make entire ships go ‘Boom!’ ATACMs, while expensive, would enable Ukraine to strike targets of the logistical variety. Remember what happened when Ukraine got the ones which fire off grape shot: they turned Moscow's helicopter fleet into swiss cheese. One missile, something like 14 helicopters.
The hangup, of course, is that Mike Johnson needs to remember that he swore an oath, an oath he is violating. He has a duty to return Congress to session and allow a vote for the Ukraine-Israel-Taiwan aid package.
Because this shit?
Russian actors conducted a cyber operation regarding Russia’s seizure of Avdiivka, likely aimed at generating panic in the Ukrainian information space and weakening Ukrainian morale.
It’s going to continue as long as America dithers.
A lot the doom and gloom from last week was thanks to Russian cyber warfare. By all appearances, Ukraine withdrew in good fashion from Avdiivka. They’re settling in now in a new fortress, likely with tea and hot cocoa. Probably. I have no way of verifying the availability of hot beverages along the Ukrainian frontline.
The tempo of Russian offensive operations near Avdiivka has reportedly dramatically slowed following the Russian seizure of Avdiivka.
‘Seizure’ is a weird verb to choose, ISW, given Ukraine’s deliberate withdrawal. I’d have gone with ‘shameful occupation’.
Now Moscow is left with the onerous task of sweeping the ruins of the settlement for traps. They’re about to suffer the striking realization that the RF MoD does not have an abundance of bomb-defusing experts. Which means they’re either about to risk the best they’ve got to clear the city, or they’re going to send conscripts to randomly open cabinets.
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairperson Dmitri Medvedev claimed on February 19 that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has recruited more than 53,000 military personnel since January 1, 2024.
Interesting...Medvedev is scaling down his proclamations. I broke down ISW’s text into the following bullet points:
January 1st 2024 to Feb 19th 2024 ~ 1060 personnel / day
November 9 to December 1 2023 ~ 1909 personnel / day.
Ukrainian GUR claim: ~1,000 personnel / day
So has recruitment actually slowed? Or is this just Medvedev realizing his claims of ~2k personnel / day were somewhat absurd? GUR’s claim was back in December / January, meaning they’re working off November to December numbers, so it feels safe to assume Medvedev is padding his figures. And given that his proclamations suddenly match Ukraine’s assessment, I’d like to know what the real records say.
Emirati banks reportedly began to limit some transactions with Russian entities and close Russian citizens’ accounts in September 2023 due to the risk of Western secondary sanctions.
These financial intermediaries refusing Russian business is a bigger deal than it first appears.
China last week, Emirati today...who’s next? India? They’re considering kicking their Russian arms habit.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reiterated that Armenia does not support Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine against the backdrop of deteriorating Russian-Armenian relations.
Ha! Armenia is scrappy as hell.
They’re shouting to anyone who’ll hear that Putin’s ongoing atrocity is...well...wrong in accordance to the treaties Armenia, Russia, and Ukraine signed together. Moscow’s playing it up like they’re still friends, which is what makes this super creepy.
Russian authorities have reportedly returned 11 Ukrainian children in occupied Ukraine and Russia to relatives in Ukraine. Kremlin-appointed Children's Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova stated on February 19 that Russian authorities returned 11 Ukrainian children to Ukraine from occupied Zaporizhia Oblast; occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast; occupied Luhansk City; occupied Simferopol, Crimea; and Krasnoyarsk City.[76] Lvova-Belova stated that Qatari authorities mediated the children’s return.
They shouldn’t have ripped them from their families in the first place.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
What does the fluctuation in Russian military recruitment numbers suggest about the challenges Russia faces in mobilizing forces for the conflict in Ukraine?
Join the conversation of on /r/TheNuttySpectacle!