The Peanut Gallery: Ukraine Begins Organized Avdiivka Pullout - Leave Behind Uncountable Russian Dead.
February 16, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation.
Please remember that I know nothing.
About four months back I implied Avdiivka wouldn’t fall. I’d assumed the US aid package would pass before the new year, or at worst mid-January, and I couldn’t see why Russia would exert so much effort in taking a fortified, strategically useless position. Apparently, I—uh, I assumed Putin had learned his lesson from Bakhmut, but I very clearly inferred a capacity for self-improvement that does not exist. Perhaps he believes he solved the problem with the murder of Prigozhin.
Each ‘Correction’ I write signifies an acknowledgement of a lesson learned. In this case it’s speaking definitively about likelihoods I feel confident in. I need to do less of that.
The Russian reaction to the reported death of imprisoned opposition politician Alexei Navalny on February 16 was relatively muted.
Navalny was special. No, he wasn't perfect, but he was an Idealist. I don't know if you guys have noticed, but Russia doesn't have too many of those these days. Navalny knew damn well what would happen when he boarded that plane, but he still did it as a matter of honor. And sure enough, Putin arrested, tortured, and murdered him for it. Hopefully in doing so Putin has unwittingly created a martyr.
We should view this as Putin’s hard right into totalitarianism. If he's openly murdering political rivals then this is just the start. Life's going to get a whole hell of a lot worse for the average Russian from here on out.
Independent Russian survey data suggests that most Russians are largely apathetic towards Russia’s war in Ukraine, particularly Russians who have not personally lost family members in Ukraine and are thus able to avoid thinking about the war entirely.
True enough, but they are pissed that food is expensive. Also the power keeps going out. Plus, it’s fucking freezing. And that their water pipes are exploding. Honestly the whole situation is a mess.
The situation is a coin flip. Maybe Russians put their heads down, surrendering entirely to Putin and retreating deeper into apathy; or maybe, just maybe, Russians get off their tails and do something about the man who’s making their lives hell.
Come on, Russia. Impress me.
Ukrainian forces have begun to withdraw from Avdiivka, and Russian forces appear to be focused on complicating or preventing a complete Ukrainian withdrawal.
Yep, looks like Ukraine’s pulling out of Avdiivka. It’s gradual, but it’s happening and at a stable rhythm.
ISW has not observed any visual evidence of large or chaotic Ukrainian withdrawals, however, and the continued marginal rate of Russian advance in and around Avdiivka suggests that Ukrainian forces are currently conducting a relatively controlled withdrawal from Avdiivka.
The Kremlin is going to go ham on this, just be warned. We’re talking the whole kit & kaboodle, from recycled footage to forged video. The internet is going to be nothing but garbage for like...a week.
Relinquishing Avdiivka strengthens Ukrainian offensive potential. They have prepared defenses behind the settlement, but now they’re freeing up several thousand for other duties as they'll need less to hold that section of the line.
Ukrainian forces may have to conduct counterattacks to conduct an orderly withdrawal from Avdivika, and Russian efforts to complicate or prevent a Ukrainian withdrawal may become increasingly attritional.
Unfortunately a withdrawal like this is complicated, and their opponent is insistent. To gain some space, Ukraine will have to perform limited counterattacks. And by the sounds of things that’s exactly what they’re doing.
NEW YORK — A judge on Friday ordered former president Donald Trump to pay more than $350 million in penalties, plus interest, following a civil fraud trial, finding that he and others had carried out a years-long scheme to use “blatantly false financial data” to borrow money at lower rates.
This, right here? This is devastating. Trump’s fucked, fucked on a level that has yet to fully be disclosed. Keep in mind, this dude is a “billionaire” in that he inflates the value of his properties, meaning he’s about to be forced to liquidate in the middle of a (commercial) real estate collapse. At fire sale prices, too, because the court doesn’t give a fuck. They’ll gladly accept a pocket full of lint and a ham sandwich for Mar-a-Lago if it’s the highest bidder.
And the hits just keep coming. Next month the criminal trials begin, the good shit, and if our luck holds we’ll see this shit gibbon behind bars.
Russian-controlled courts in occupied Ukraine continue to pass harsh sentences on Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
Putin murdered Navalny. How will the Russian people react?
Join the conversation of on /r/TheNuttySpectacle!