The Peanut Gallery: Ukraine Detonates Russian Missile Corvette - Fireball Visible From Space. Probably.
February 1, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Witness the puppy! Dude’s a rescue so he’s a little nervous, but he’s already settling in.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Howdy Folks,
Let’s get to it.
Holy fucking shit where the hell did that come from?!
But it makes sense, right? If South Crimea is strikable, why here too?
What the fuck was the Kremlin thinking leaving such an expensive piece of military hardware on the west coast of Crimea? Was this supposed to support assaults on Krynky? They have to be insane. With this strike, Ukraine just demonstrated they have the entire western half of the peninsula under fire control. Like sure, they’re probably munition limited, but then it just becomes a question of optimizing target value.
So what did the Kremlin lose? Well, a boat. An expensive boat. It’s forty-man missile corvette, meaning it was one of the things shooting missiles at Ukrainian hospitals. It was also one of the last significant threats towards Black Sea shipping. Its loss will likely bring insurance premiums down for Ukrainian grain exports. Odessa might actually make a profit this year!
Russia says Ukraine shot a dozen Storm Shadows to take the boat down. Crimean air defense claimed they knocked down all of them...? All of them but one, apparently.
The milblogger claimed that Russian forces downed five missiles near Belbek Air Base in occupied Sevastopol and six missiles over Yana Kapu, Hvardiske, and northwest of Sevastopol and that one missile struck the ground near Belbek Air Base but did not damage it.
Look, I don’t want to tell the Kremlin how to do its job, but why are missiles fired at a boat in a harbor on the northwest overflying Belbek Air Base?
Striking both the corvette and the air base would be ballsy play, not one I would expect Ukraine to use with its limited Storm Shadow supply. They’ve only got forty of these things, and if what the Kremlin is saying is true (it isn’t), then over the last two days Ukraine has launched thirty-two of them. There are...many contradictions in the Kremlin’s story, but if I’m inclined to humor them then I would pay attention to the numbers. Notice they didn’t say drones. The milblogger claimed missiles.
So how the hell is Ukraine firing off twelve storm shadow missile salvos? Jury-rigged Su-34s carry one, max two, at a time, meaning Ukraine would have to field minimum a wing of six to meet the numbers this milblogger is claiming. F-16s don’t carry them, by the way. So that’s out, assuming they’re not some generic-ass air-to-surface missile the Kremlin is confusing for Storm Shadows.
Which leaves GLSDB, as /u/Franknarf mentioned yesterday. These puppies are typically fired from a Himars launcher with a 150 km range—key word being ‘typically’. It’s a pain in the ass, but technically they can be fired from the ammunition pod itself. This means it can be shipped, moved as it were. My thought is Ukraine fired these sons of bitches off from their oil rigs around Odessa.
Sure, it still doesn’t explain how the missiles made it to Belbek, but it’s a damn sight better than the hogwash the Kremlin is trying to sell.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi presented an overarching strategy to seize the theater-wide initiative in Ukraine and retain it to facilitate Ukrainian battlefield victories despite Russia’s numerical advantages in manpower and materiel. Zaluzhnyi’s strategy aims to offset Ukraine’s existing challenges and pursue advantages over the Russian military through widespread technological innovation and adaptation.
I haven’t read it (will soon), but the ISW’s assessment seems to imply that the main problem is a lack of speed. It’s literally the same conundrum we had in World War One: the tank (horse) is too fragile to survive, and the infantry are too slow to exploit a breach. What do?
Again, I haven’t read it, but let me spit ball an idea: Gunships. These drones are getting big now, and honestly, it’s about time we try strapping a gatling gun to one of them. Why go through the whole rigmarole of dropping a grenade when you could instead point and shoot? Sure, recoil would be a bitch, but fear not, boys and girls. Uncle Sam has a rifle for every occasion.
The basic strat is: suicide drones swoop in for armor, gunships mop up infantry, and then the Ukrainians show up. Mostly as a formality, and ideally carried in palanquins by robots. Women...shall be brought to them.
Russian milbloggers continued to voice frustrations about Russian forces’ continued tactical blunders during offensive operations in western Donetsk Oblast.
Kupyansk ain’t goin’ nowhere, mother fucker. That offensive was D.O.A.
Still ongoing, however. Making slight gains, so it is way too soon to call it, but you know what? I’m feeling lucky. I have seen zero indication the Kremlin can improve their offensive capacity. I’m watching the same columns of olive-green tanks blowing up that I was watching a year and change ago. The tactics are damn near identical.
Which is exactly why the milblogger is bitching. Ukrainian mines forced Russian armor into thin columns, making them easy targets for pre-sighted artillery. The Ukrainians took the lessons they learned at the Surovikhin Line and duplicated them in Kupyansk. If Ukraine, with all of its NATO intel and toys, couldn’t breach it, why would the incompetent and beleaguered Russian Federation have a prayer?
Prove me wrong, Putin. Prove me wrong.
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Joseph Borrell stated that the European Union (EU) will not be able to send the promised one million shells to Ukraine by March 2024, but is planning to fulfill this promise by the end of 2024.
More evidence of manufacturing as the primary bottleneck for aid.
The European Union (EU) unanimously approved a financial support package for Ukraine for 2024 – 2027.
And closing tonight we have the highlight of my day. Good job, Europe. $54 billion is an enormous contribution, plus the EU demonstrated it can overrule a veto. That’s an important first step in reigning in such a misplaced democratization of power. Oh, and even better was seeing Victor Orban humiliated. That fat bastard needed to be reminded of his place.
Now it’s our turn here in the States. Last I heard the two bills, Ukraine and border, were about to be separated...and I legitimately have no idea if that’s good news. DC is opaque atm.
Russian authorities are planning to increase the deportation of Ukrainian children to Russia in 2024. Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Council Deputy Alla Barkhatnova stated on January 30 that occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast are working to increase the number of children who go on “trips” to “health and recreation” camps in Russia in 2024.[85] Barkhatnova noted that several such programs took place in 2023 and that Ukrainian children underwent ”social and psychological adaptation” in various camps, including in Litvonovo, Moscow Oblast, and in Krasnoyarsk, Krasnoyarsk Krai.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this to an end.
'Q’ For the Community:
What is enabling Ukraine’s recent rash of strikes on Crimea?
Join the conversation over on /r/TheNuttySpectacle.
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