The Peanut Gallery: Ukraine Shoves a Fistful of Drones Down Russia's Throat - Kremlin Swallows More Than Half.
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Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted a large series of strikes against targets in Russia on the night of December 29 to 30 and on December 30.
Ukraine must be pissed because hot damn that's a lot of drones. Seventy--that's Shahed-swarm numbers.
Ladies and gentlemen, we are looking at a homegrown Ukrainian weapons factory: first-mover advantage in a fresh marketplace. Ukraine, right now, is building NATO’s version of the Shahed, and when this war ends it'll be worth a fortune. It's the ultimate disposable strategic-strike platform, built on a a simple premise: "Why bother a plane when you can just slap together a missile and be done with it?"
Which is why I find the ISW’s West-abandonment doomerism regarding Ukraine so damn confusing. They are absolutely convinced that if the West ditched Ukraine, it would be Game Over, but I think that’s a bit of colonialist blindness. Ukraine just demonstrated they can build enough domestic ordinance for a strategic strike campaign; they’re investing heavily in domestic production of artillery ammunition; and unless I’m mistaken, they’re fully self-sufficient on frontline drones. This isn’t surprising. Ukraine’s had a year and a half to build up its arms industry, a year and a half well spent it seems.
Meanwhile over in Russia, the Kremlin’s dropping bombs on Belgorod.
Russian forces conducted a lower number of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on December 30 following the large Russian strike series on December 29.
Now that was a retaliatory missile strike. They shot off ten missiles, Ukraine shot down five of them. The other five hit civilian targets, I believe.
Compare that to Ukraine. Of the over seventy drones they launched, the Kremlin claims they shot down thirty-two, or, generously, 45% of targets. That means, currently, Ukraine's drones have a 2:1 use:gain ratio. Of every two built, one will get through. Given the strike range and the apparent efficacy, that’s a hell of a return on investment. And that’s taking the Kremlin’s figures at face-value, which we all know are stupidly inflated.
The only way for Russia to really compensate for this is to deploy air defense to domestic Russia. They do this, though, and they’ll play right into Ukraine’s hands.
Think about it, there is nothing happening in Kherson right now. Nothing. It’s eerie. Russia is terrified of putting anything into the skies of Kherson. The MoD figured out how they lost their jets, and now they aren’t going west of Melitopol...at least that’s how it seems given the lowered tempo of attacks on Krynky. Ukraine has drone supremacy of the Dnipro; which they used to secure artillery dominance; and now they've seized control of the Kherson skies. Folks, that’s the full monty. When Ukraine decides to go on the attack, it’s going to have all it needs for maneuver warfare. A repositioning of Russian AA to protect domestic cities would only exacerbate this problem.
The Kremlin’s recent public rhetoric about its maximalist objectives and imperial designs in Ukraine are permeating the Russian information space.
ISW called attention to some Russian milbloggers today who clamored for the Kremlin’s maximalist goals. This is important mostly from an ideological perspective. The Kremlin’s reasons for the war in Ukraine were always somewhat ambiguous.
I could've sworn Russia invaded Ukraine to overthrow their Jewish cabal (but not Israeli-Jews because Palestinians are brown and brown=bad) who were out to orchestrate another Holocaust...but this time on ethnic Russians in revenge for the Soviet’s victory over the Nazis in World War Two.
Nope. Ain't that: turns out it's imperialism. That's it. That's the reason. The Kremlin wants to unify the “Russian” people into some kind of imaginary golden-age, one where they were happy and everything was great. Russian history can be summarized as, “And then it got worse,” so I sincerely doubt the milibloggers know what they’re getting into by trying to roll back the clock.
Unfortunately this time machine looks to involve annexing Moldova.
Russia continues to set information conditions aimed at destabilizing Moldova by framing Russia as a protector of allegedly threatened Russian-language speakers in Moldova.
We really need to just step in. Why the fuck is Putin allowed to continue to pal around in Transnistria? There is no legitimate reason for the West to tolerate a Russian occupation of Moldova. Let’s just dig ‘em out. What’s Putin going to do? Nuke us? Please.
Putin is pressuring Moldova to designate Russian as the ‘official language of translation’ or some-such nonsense. It’s a ridiculous claim, and not one I think we should tolerate. Especially given that Putin has designs on the rest of us as well.
Russia continues attempts to actively shape the Western information space to support Russian positions and undermine support for Ukraine while portraying these efforts as endogenous to the West.
We all knew it was happening. Russia is in our media sphere, influencing public discourse and exacerbating social tensions. The 2024 election cycle is going to be a shit-show, likely in all of our respective countries.
The Washington Post also reported that a six-month French government inquiry found that “Russia is conducting a long-term disinformation campaign in [France] to defend and promote Russian interests and to polarize [French] democratic society.”[29] The inquiry highlighted French far-right party National Rally’s links to the Kremlin and National Rally Party member and French politician Thierry Mariani's continued pro-Russian positions.[30] Mariani, previously under investigation for Russia-related corruption, is the Co-Chair of the Russian government-founded French think tank, the Franco-Russian Dialogue Association.[31] Russia reportedly employs similar information tactics in Ukraine, the West, and worldwide.
Honestly I’m sick of this guy interfering in our elections. Putin seems to be everywhere, stirring every pot and pissing in every stew. Getting rid of him would make this democracy thing a whole hell of a lot easier.
The Russian military command reportedly continued the dissolution of the “Kaskad” operational combat tactical formation of the Donetsk People’s Republic’s (DNR) Internal Affairs Ministry (MVD) to support its efforts to formalize control over Russian irregular forces.
Woah! I did not see this coming.
So Kaskad, right? It sounds more-and-more like the DNR core, such that remains of it, and they’ve more-or-less been sticking to the back ranks lately. They like it in the rear, nice and cushy, but now the RF MoD needs their people and their gear. The MoD wants to dissolve the Kaskad unit into “reserve” for deployment as necessary. Meaning now. Straight to the front. Kaskad doesn’t want this, naturally, so a significant unit in Kaskad got itself reassigned under a Rosgvardia regiment, a unit which does not see active combat. Apparently this matter was severe enough to demand Gerasimov’s attention because he showed up to handle this personally.
Now whether figures out this problem is irrelevant—I just find it fascinating that the RF MoD must compete for military resources among various Russian institutions. The war effort should be absolute, so why can’t RF MoD top brass push around the national guard? Pathetic.
Russia continues efforts to integrate education systems in occupied Ukraine and expand education programs aimed at eliminating Ukrainian identity in occupied territories.
Cultural genocide, ladies and gentlemen. Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this to an end.
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'Q’s For the Community:
Ukraine’s punch back—do you think it’ll be a one off? Or a frequent thing?
Will Russia’s shootdown success rate go up or down? Why?