The Peanut Gallery: Kremlin Loses Aerial Presence Over Sea of Azov - Ukraine Gains Significant Advantage in Kherson Oblast.
January 16, 2024
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Russian tactical aviation operations are reportedly decreasing near the Sea of Azov, and Russian aviation capabilities may be degraded after Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and caused severe damage to a Russian Il-22 airborne command post aircraft on the night of January 14.
Oh! I love me some consequences.
Right, so there’s a flurry of narratives flying around regarding that craft—that Russian shot it down themselves; that Ukraine shot it down; that Ukraine didn’t shoot it down but it’s definitely down; Russia has ENDLESS replacements and it doesn’t matter that it’s down; to (and this one’s my personal favorite) Israel did it. I mean why not, right?
The point is the A-50 is down and the IL-22M is out of action. We’re seeing an immediate, short-term effect where the Kremlin is hesitant to stick anything over the Sea of Azov. They don’t know why they lost their five jets last month, and they don’t know why they lost this thing. Without the vantage point the A-50 offered, the Kremlin will find it extremely difficult to fly anything over Kherson Oblast.
I can't help but wonder, will the Kremlin keep winging about the cold into July?
At least two state-owned Chinese banks reportedly ordered reviews of their business with Russian clients and will sever ties with sanctioned Russian entities and entities with ties to the Russian defense industry.
Man, it’s just one thing after another for Putin, isn’t it? This man is in a tailspin. Even Beijing is dumping his ass.
The jury is still out on whether this will mean anything. Beijing and Moscow are tightly bound together economically. It's Russian consumption and fossil fuels which prop up Xi’s regime, which means there is a significant push in the West to divest from the CCP; this will mean declining import revenues; especially critical because China’s housing crisis seems to only be exacerbating. Given the censorship, I wouldn’t be surprised if they’re covering up a devastating economic crisis. It's usually a bad sign when a government ceases to release regular economic figures.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to demonstrate that Russia is not interested in negotiating with Ukraine in good faith and that Russia’s maximalist objectives in Ukraine – which are tantamount to full Ukrainian and Western surrender – remain unchanged.
The West offered an olive branch over Christmas. They spread the rumor of backchannel talks, they delayed aid announcements, and generally faffed about while Ukraine remained in a purely defensive posture. That was Putin’s out, his last chance of clinging to power. All he had to do was give up what he’d stolen and walk away. It’s an offer that’s likely still on the table.
Putin don’t seem like he’s going to take it, though.
Russian President Vladimir Putin notably amplified a longstanding Kremlin effort to set information conditions for future escalations against Baltic countries, likely as part of his wider effort to weaken NATO.
But why though. There is a conversation in Switzerland right now over what the world should do regarding the imminent collapse of Putin’s government. By threatening further war, during a peace conference, while Iran is chucking missiles, he is actively working against his own interests.
People are unified by fear, by a common foe, and in attempting to intimidate us he is triggering that exact-same collective tendency. This tendency is what makes fascism work in the first place, which is exactly the ideology he is attempting to inject into his people. How he fails to make the connection is beyond me.
The Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada adopted a law on its second reading to digitalize Ukrainian military records on January 16.
I consistently forget just how far behind in this war Ukraine started. They’ve really had a rough go of it over the last thirty years, haven’t they? Poor bastards.
Modernization isn’t a quality of character, but it does demand solid institutions. Do the work, give a shit, and eventually the world becomes a better place. It’s how it’s always been, and it warms my heart to see Ukraine’s efforts pay off.
Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko confirmed that Russian authorities have deported over 2,100 Ukrainians, including 500 children, to Russia for medical reasons in 2023.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this to an end.
'Q’ For the Community:
What do you think the folks in Switzerland are talking about right now?
Join the conversation over on /r/TheNuttySpectacle.