The Peanut Gallery: Ukrainian Drones Torch Three Kremlin Oil Refineries in One Night
March 13, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Today Storyteller's all over the place.
Please remember that I know nothing.
[Ukrainian actors (SBU) conducted large-scale drone against oil refineries in Ryazan, Nizhny Novgorod, and Leningrad oblasts and military airfields in Buturlinovka and Voronezh City, Voronezh Oblast.]
Ryazan Oblast Head Pavel Malkov confirmed that a drone struck the Ryazan oil refinery, starting a fire, and footage shows a plume of smoke rising from the oil refinery area. At least three Ukrainian drones also targeted the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov Oblast, reportedly causing the refinery to temporarily stop operations.
Some Russian sources additionally claimed that one drone struck a Federal Security Service (FSB) regional building in Belgorod City, but Russian opposition media noted that Russian state media later deleted reports of this particular strike.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian air defenses destroyed 58 drones on the night of March 12 to 13: 11 over Belgorod Oblast; eight over Bryansk Oblast; 29 over Voronezh Oblast; eight over Kursk Oblast; one over Leningrad Oblast; and one over Ryazan Oblast.
Sure you did, RF MoD. Sure you did.
I feel like I'm watching a proud two-year-old demonstrate how they solved their bedwetting issue by flushing their sheets.
Honestly they should be proud. That’s some creative problem solving—the toddler, not the RF MoD. That’s where this simile falls apart: lying is fucking simple and I’m not impressed.
But let’s take their numbers at their word. Let’s say, generously, that they shot down (58) 100% of the Ukrainian drones Ukraine launched last night, not one hitting their mark. That Ukraine only launched the 58 drones Russia claims to have shot down. That still means Ukraine’s DIB can produce sizeable drone volleys on a regular basis. And regardless of what the Kremlin claims, Ukraine’s drones are getting through. We have the video evidence to prove it.
With these attacks Ukraine targets the financial heart of Putin’s empire. Those refineries print money, almost quite literally as Russia imports a lot. I saw a number floating around arguing the facilities Ukraine hit are worth something like 13% of Russia’s refining capacity. Needless to say, those new smoldering craters are going to leave a serious hole in Putin’s purse.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces repelled another limited cross-border incursion by the all-Russian pro-Ukrainian Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), Freedom of Russia Legion (LSR), and Siberian Battalion in Belgorod and Kursk oblasts on the night of March 12 and the morning of March 13.
Russian bots are running serious screening on this one. They’re all over the place right now, so I’d encourage everyone to relax. We aren’t going to know shit for the next couple days. You want an example? Just this morning I watched footage of LSR fighters holding an abandoned house, and the comments section was just full of garbage. One brief scroll through and you’ll see the narratives the Kremlin intends to go with regarding this thing:
Tik-Tok Batallion.
Weird training-field comments.
First, Tik-Tok Batallion? Really that’s what the Rooskies are going with? Weak.
Kadyrov’s thugs shot off entire magazines from the hip. Sometimes in Napoleonic-era firing lines. Compare their shitty performance with the video I linked above; note how the LSR acting as a team, taking cover in a solid, defensible position, and laying-down doctrinally appropriate suppressing fire.
Remember kids: life ain’t Hollywood and full auto is a waste.
Second, training-field? Mother fucker it’s been nine years of war. The houses are abandoned because anyone with half a brain moved away a long time ago. Shelled out and overgrown is exactly what I would expect the border between Russia and Ukraine to look. I'd excuse one-or-two people mentioning that thought, but when half the comment section is running with the narrative I start to get suspicious.
Anyway, you can probably safely block anyone who brings up either of these things. You won’t miss much.
Ukrainian shortages of ammunition and other war materiel resulting from delays in the provision of US military assistance may be making the current Ukrainian front line more fragile than the relatively slow Russian advances in various sectors would indicate.
And now for a new segment!
Current count: 177 (/213D) signatures of the required 218, all Democrats.
Eight Democrats signed today compared to the 169 yesterday. This strikes me as deliberate. By trickling signatories they’re giving the GOP a chance to get its shit together. Why, you might ask? Because in politics it pays to be nice. By allowing McConnell’s faction a chance to regain control, the Democrats are giving them an out.
Actually this is important. Listen to Sun Tzu:
Build your opponent a golden bridge to retreat across.
By cutting a person off from all hope, you make resistance the only choice. By slow walking the discharge petition the Democrats are essentially announcing that the last raft off the GOP’s sinking ship is about to depart. Please keep your arms and legs inside the vehicle at all times.
Russian authorities in Moscow Oblast created “training programs” for people potentially considering adopting illegally deported Ukrainian children in Russia.[80] The program reportedly falsely conflates Ukrainian and Russian culture. The program reportedly tells participants that their main objective is to create a “second homeland” for Ukrainian children in Russia and that they will need to overcome “difficulties in international differences.” Participants of the training program must undergo interviews in which Russian authorities ask if they have Ukrainian friends and relatives. ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children likely amounts to a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
Russia's refining capacity is in freefall. Do you think the Kremlin continue to maintain its 100 ruble:1 dollar exchange peg through 2024?
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