The Peanut Gallery: US DoD Verifies Ukraine Used All Aid Legitimately - Complains About Shoddy Paperwork.
January 11, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Folks I feel myself afflicted by a touch of cognitive dissonance.
On the one hand I know that Ukraine ceased its fall offensive after it’d naturally run its course. There was gas still in the tank, but they called it off. They didn’t pull a Bakhmut, is what I’m saying.
Then came Russia’s Avdiivka Debacle, the muds, everything’s shitty... But defensive operations are significantly easier than offensive ones. They’re not attacking so their expenditure of resources is at an absolute minimum.
On the other, Ukraine is complaining about shortages, manpower and ammunition. We’ve got the bullshit in the US Congress; delayed deliveries; and ISW keeps hammering the desperate need for more aid. Ukraine's reserved posture could very well be a reflection of these supply constraints.
To be honest, we don’t get a clear picture of the situation on the Ukrainian side of the line, for good reason. In the same way that we dismiss Russian sources, they dismiss ours. We automatically screen for bad news because it makes us feel bad, enemy propaganda acting as a convenient justification for our biases. The result is that we subconsciously build information bubbles, little pockets where we’re protected from the bad feeling of being wrong. The first stage of grief is denial, and social media means we never have to move onto the second.
TLDR: there is a strong likelihood that my perception of Ukraine’s relative position is rosier than reality might otherwise demonstrate.
Freezing temperatures in Ukraine are likely constraining operations along the front but will likely create more favorable terrain for mechanized maneuver warfare as the ground freezes in the coming weeks.
Despite all that good shit I just spat, I still think Ukraine’s going to cross the Dnipro this winter. Fight me.
The reported concentration of the Russian military’s entire combat-capable ground force in Ukraine and ongoing Russian force generation efforts appear to allow Russian forces to conduct routine operational level rotations in Ukraine.
Oh, ISW, don’t call them rotations. Just don’t. Routine rotation implies Russia is pulling its forces back for a little R&R; half a paragraph down from this quote they mention most of shifts only happen when a unit reaches 50% attrition. That’s not a rotation, it’s a pit-stop.
Still, it does go to show that the Kremlin can, for the moment at least, sustain the current level of attrition. They’re pulling in as much as they’re losing.
I have my doubts as to how long they can keep it up.
Ukrainian Southern Operational Command Spokesperson Captain First Rank Nataliya Humenyuk reported that the intensity of infantry assaults in the Kherson direction has decreased because there are fewer Russian Storm-Z assault units in the area and a higher concentration of Russian naval infantry and VDV units that do not conduct consistent attritional assaults as they consider themselves “elite.”[79]
A lot to unpack here.
First, why is the Kremlin no longer supplying Kherson with Storm-Z units? I get that it’s at the end of their supply road, but holding Kherson Oblast should be their highest priority right now. It’s not Avdiivka, nor Kup’yans’k, or even fucking Bakhmut. It’s Kherson Oblast. If it falls, then all of this was worthless.
Second, did the ISW just suggest the VDV are refusing to perform assaults on Krnyky? That’s interesting, especially when combined with the 40 Russians who deserted today. Is the VDV buckling?
And third,
Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces conducted ballistic missile strikes against populated areas in west (right) bank Kherson Oblast on January 9 and 11 and possibly used an Iskander missile in the January 11 strike.[80]
Nuh-uh—don't count. We know the Kremlin can shoot ballistic missiles from anywhere without putting themselves at risk. The point of this attack is to “feel out” Ukraine’s AA shield. Interception of these missiles would show whether Ukraine had a Patriot battery in the region. I don’t think ISW reported on the success or failure of the shots.
Russia’s doing this because they don’t know what killed their three jets in December. Think about that: it’s been three weeks and the RF MoD still has no idea what hit them.
Russia’s ability to conduct operational level rotations will likely allow Russian forces to maintain the overall tempo of their localized offensive operations in eastern Ukraine in the near term, but it is unclear if Russian forces will be able to conduct effective rotations in the long term or in the event of intensified Russian offensive efforts or a significant Ukrainian counteroffensive operation.
They’ll be able to perform the rotations until they can’t anymore. That’s how compensation works. Routinely rotating out units 50% attrited is not...that’s not good, you know? It’s a bad sign.
Latvia and Estonia announced new military aid packages to Ukraine on January 11.
Holy hell! Estonia just pledged a solid 0.25% of their annual GDP to Ukraine! Damn! You love to see it.
The US Department of Defense (DoD) Office of the Inspector General published a report on January 11 that states that the failure to document certain aid provided to Ukraine in a timely manner is largely due to DoD limitations but that does not suggest that any of the material aid has been misappropriated.
Yeah, so I’m mostly including this one to ward off a Kremlin narrative.
The DoD just announced Ukraine used all of the equipment we gave them legitimately, though they’re a little shit on the paperwork. Apparently their entire country only has ten barcode readers...
I call bullshit. This sounds like a psyop to me. In the same breath, the US official mentions Ukraine doesn't have the manpower available to man the back-end. They're acting like all aid goes through a single broke-dick warehouse with only ten barcode scanners. It's patently absurd.
Russia continues to forcibly deport children from occupied Ukraine under the guise of vacations.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this to an end.
'Q’ For the Community:
Will Russian jets ever return to Kherson’s skies?
Join the conversation over on /r/TheNuttySpectacle.