The Peanut Gallery: Yeah, Sure, Whatever. Trump Won Iowa - But Did You See That Abysmal GOP Turnout?
January 15, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Sky News reported that the U.S. Consulate in Erbil was attacked by "long-range missiles with great destructive capacity." Additionally, Sky News reported that several missiles were intercepted before reaching the U.S. base at Erbil airport.
Okay. So apparently this is happening. I’m told Iran missed the US Consulate and instead murdered a prominent member of the Kurdish community. The word going around is that this guy was well liked, though that may be a disinformation campaign, perhaps with the goal of encouraging military action in Yemen. To be honest it’s getting really fucking hard to tell lately. The amount of misinformation swirling around is the worst I’ve ever seen it.
Iran is trying to draw the West into a war. That much is clear. They’d like to make the war out to be our fault, and they’d like it if we put boots on the ground in Yemen. That is also clear. If both of these things are true, then Biden cannot allow himself to fall for this obvious trap. We need to find an alternative to blunt application of force.
Biden should ignore Yemen and strike Iranian assets. That’s play here. The Houthis are nothing without their Persian backers, they take literal direction from the IRGC, so to resolve this problem we must strike at the root. It’s time to make Iran pay for their transgressions—not a lot, but this warrants a direct response.
Yep. DJT won Iowa decisively. Somewhat surprisingly, Haley came in third, DeSantis in second. Here’s a helpful cheat sheet for the type who voted for each candidate:
Donald Trump: MAGA-rabid fascists, foaming at the mouth with zealous bloodlust.
Ron DeSantis: MAGA-rabid fascists, yet still able to hold a coherent conversation. These are the folks who aren’t in it for Trump, rather they think of fascism as more of a, “Movement, you know? Really get this whole white-power thing going. Grassroots.”
Nicki Haley: Bog-standard conservatives staring slack-jawed at the staggering consequences of their own ineptitude. Good job.
But that’s not the takeaway. The takeaway is that Republican voter turnout to the Iowa Caucus was a historic low. That’s fantastic news. Despite the bravado, despite the chest thumping and victimhood, people aren’t excited to vote for Trump. They see the writing on the wall. Trump is going down in flames, and even the shit-tier economy, Biden’s abysmal poll numbers, and the GOP’s endless drama, less and less seem to think voting for DJT is going to help.
Let’s hope this trend continues. We’ll know more as we move deeper into the primary.
Ukrainian officials announced that Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft and severely damaged an Il-22 airborne command post aircraft on the night of January 14.
Fuck yeah! The wins just keep coming.
I have no damn clue how they pulled this off, but it sure-as-fuck wasn’t a Patriot battery. My totally ungrounded theory is that Ukraine spent several weeks clearing AA from Kherson Oblast, charted a path, and chucked an F-16 through the corridor to fire off an over-the-horizon strike on a bright-as-fuck radar signature. So, you know, if people start spreading that rumor know that you heard it here first. I started that disinformation completely unfounded and based purely upon supposition. Call ‘em out on it and link back here. It’ll help this place grow.
Short-term ISW says the consequences for this shoot-down will mean a difficult time targeting strikes on Ukrainian assets in Kherson Oblast, strategic or otherwise. Long-term...who the fuck knows? Long-term hasn’t been a word in the Russian lexicon for almost two years at this point.
A senior Ukrainian intelligence official confirmed that Russian forces can generate forces at a rate equal to Russian monthly personnel losses, which is consistent with ISW’s assessment that Russian forces are able to conduct routine operational level rotations in Ukraine.
Yeah, okay...so like 1k / day? But for how long? I have to ask. How long can the Kremlin continue to hide the effects of their crypto mobilization? How are they going to mesh this with their exacerbating labor shortage? Their declining demographic situation?
These are all uncomfortable questions, both for Russia and for Putin. These are atrocious losses against an opponent purely on the defensive. Think about it, Ukraine isn’t attacking anywhere. Eight hundred a day is what the Kremlin now suffers baseline.
German outlet BILD reported on classified German documents describing a hypothetical scenario to prepare for a possible future conflict between NATO and Russia. Developing such scenarios, which are usually classified, is a normal task for professional military staffs.
This thing hit the front page of /r/noncredibledefense today. I dismissed it at the time because...well, I was on /r/noncredibledefense. But apparently it was real. The plan is purely military worst-case-scenario thinking. It’s their job to war game this sort of thing. Still terrifying to think about, though.
Russia and Iran are preparing to sign a Grand Interstate Treaty to further develop Russian-Iranian military-technological cooperation.
Okay...so is that going to be their alliance name? Kinda lame if you ask me. The Grand Interstate doesn’t have the same ring as the Axis Powers or the Triple Entente. Trust the Kremlin to give our generation the shittiest version of our grandparent’s defining conflict.
Russian forces made confirmed advances west of Donetsk City and near Krynky amid continued positional fighting along the entire line of contact.
The lines are more fluid than they might seem. Confirmed advance means someone got to someplace new and took a photo; it doesn’t mean they held that new place, nor that they’re still there, nor that the attack succeeded. Nor that the place was more than a foot or two farther than the day before. It just means somebody crawled on their belly to take a picture in a new locale.
That’s not why I’m bringing this to your attention.
Russian sources claimed that freezing weather conditions are inhibiting Ukrainian boat movements and landings on the east bank because the Dnipro and Konka rivers and channels are frozen.[79]
Are they fucking high? Like, yeah, sure, the temperature sometimes drops below freezing, but it’s not exactly sub-zero, is it? And considering a river generally, you know, moves, it keeps a constant inflow of heat into the system to prevent icing over. The temperature has to be considerably below zero for an extended period of time for the fucking Konka to freeze.
I wonder if this has anything to do with the bullshit excuse they gave about why they can’t put planes in Kherson Oblast, that it was “too cold” to fly a fucking jet.
The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that Ukrainian resistance forces detonated a Russian military UAZ Patriot vehicle in occupied Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast, injuring four Russian personnel and killing an unspecified number of personnel.
Hell yeah! Well done, GUR. It seems Melitipol partisans are alive and well.
Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko confirmed that Russian authorities have deported over 2,100 Ukrainians, including 500 children, to Russia for medical reasons in 2023.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this to an end.
'Q’ For the Community:
What do you think of the Iran-Russia alliance name? Think it needs some work?
Join the conversation over on /r/TheNuttySpectacle.