Trump's Armistice Means Nothing. Putin Doesn't Want Peace.
November 27, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Today’s a good day to give thanks.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Yes, I’m aware most of you don’t celebrate this beautiful, wonderful day, but it’s still important to recognize the deliciousness of turkey, mashed potatoes, and gravy.
This year I’m thankful for all of you. Most of you stuck with me in my long absence, and you continue to read and comment on all these posts. Thank you for reading. Thank you for supporting Ukraine. And thank you for being you.
Let’s get to it.
Russian officials continue to demonstrate that the Kremlin aims to seize more territory in Ukraine than it currently occupies and is unwilling to accept compromises or engage in good faith negotiations, no matter who mediates such talks.
Look, there’s something we need to talk about. It has to do with Trump’s election. It was a scary event, still is scary, and we don’t know how that man will respond. He looks to be angling towards some sort of peace proposal, an armistice which will clearly favor Russia, but he isn’t doing so with the explicit intent of helping Putin. At least not overtly. If Trump pushes an armistice, then there’s still the matter of Ukraine signing on. They might refuse outright, regardless of whether they must then prosecute the war without the United States’ weapons. But if they sign on, there’s still the matter of Russia’s agreement.
All messaging indicates that Russia has zero intention of adhering to any armistice cooked up by Trump. Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service Director Sergei Naryshkin recently went on record to “categorically reject” any “freezing” of the front line. He preemptively shut down the concept of a ceasefire before negotiations even began.
How serious is Russia about this rejection? I’d say pretty damn serious. The problem for negotiations is that Russia’s experiencing minor progress in Donbas, and that might be encouraging them to think that Ukraine is close to cracking under the pressure. Trump very-well might remove Ukraine’s military aid, that is a serious concern, and Putin might think his army will be enough to seize more. In that situation he’d want to keep pushing. In my opinion it’s the scenario for which he’s angling. It gets him everything he wants and all it costs is Russian lives. Ukraine’s free real estate!
But I think the ‘continuing war’ scenario will be a huge mistake for Putin. Russia is at full employment with a declining population; their Soviet stockpiles are running low; and just recently the ruble began to experience severe depreciation, plummeting to 120 rubles per dollar with no bottom in sight. Trump’s armistice is Putin’s exit ramp. He still gets to control a huge amount of territory, plus the killing stops. His empire can stop hemorrhaging blood and treasure. If this war continues Russia will, eventually, collapse, and Trump’s peace could be the last chance Putin has to walk away from this fight.
The Russian military's rate of advance since Fall 2024 has notably increased recently compared to its rate of advance in 2023 and the rest of 2024, but recent Western media reports comparing recent Russian gains to those at the start of Russia's full-scale invasion continue to mischaracterize the gradual and tactical nature of Russia's recent advances.
Unfortunately, as I was saying, Putin is experiencing some relative battlefield success. Since the start of November Russia has gained about 574 square kilometers, or roughly 22 square kilometers per day. It’s slow, it’s grinding, but it’s tangible progress. It’s the sort of victory which may encourage him to choose to refuse an armistice. That’s not to say he won’t come to the table and pretend like he’s negotiating, but it won’t be in good faith.
Predictably, Western social media seized upon news of the recent Russian gains in the Donbas with the sort of bipolar enthusiasm so typical of these platforms. They elevated the most extreme opinions on the spectrum, mostly, in case, folks dooming over this new reality. It is reality, but we must be careful to draw from it a more moderate take on the situation.
Yes, Ukraine is retreating in the Donbas, but the retreat is gradual, clearly controlled. This isn’t a case of the frontline collapsing. Rather, it’s a town here, a town there, and all of it controlled. We must keep in mind that the war lurks everywhere, from the frontline to the rear line. And the fact of the matter is that these gains cost Russia a colossal amount of lives. I’m seeing casualty reports close to 1.4 thousand a day, or 42 thousand a month, in an army with recruitment that tops out at 30 thousand a month.
There will come a point when Russia is unable to sustain their offensive. In the meantime Ukraine will continue to ravage their backline.
Ukrainian forces continue to leverage Western-provided weapons to conduct strikes using more complex strike packages against military objects in Russia's deep rear.
Lord! Last night Ukraine struck Sevastopol with Neptune anti-ship missiles, S-200 air defense missiles, a few Storm Shadows, and about 40 strike drones. Both Russia and Ukraine are keeping mum on what got hit.
The package is interesting. Typically Ukraine sends Storm Shadows and ATACMs alone, or in masses, and we’ve seen plenty of them get through. They pierce Russian air defense regularly. The fact that there is such a varied amount of ordinance flying in a single volley makes me think of two possibilities:
Russia S-400 & S-300 can reliably shoot down Storm Shadow & ATACMs missiles.
The target was extremely well defended and therefore high value.
I believe possibility one is unlikely. Just last week we saw a Ukrainian ATACMs strike knock-out an S-400 air defense battery. That’s the best air defense platform Russia has at their disposal and Ukraine took it out with five missiles. No strike package. Maybe the Storm Shadow missiles are easier to knock down necessitating other ordinances to act as decoys, but remember, Ukraine leveled an entire command center in Kursk using just Storm Shadow missiles.
I’m leaning towards Possibility Two. Whatever it was must have been important enough to necessitate expending so many different types of firepower.
Unfortunately, Ukraine is not the only one using drones in this war.
Russian forces launched a record number of drones against Ukraine on the night of November 25 to 26 as Russia continued to increase their use of decoy drones in long-range strike packages targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure in order to overwhelm Ukrainian air defense systems.
Last night Ukraine experienced one of the largest drone attacks of the war. Russia hurled 188 Shahed drones, or at least 188 things that looked like Shahed drones. A good portion of that number were decoys.
I find the concept of ‘decoy drone’ strange, because shouldn’t that still necessitate creating a drone? It still needs to fly vast distances reliably, and that means it needs to be radio controlled and capable of maneuvering. Those requirements necessitate electronics and a stable frame and...and a damn drone!
Oh. Oh I think I get it now. Russia imports the Shahed. They cost money. Russia’s got a domestic factory, but it isn’t producing all of the drones they need. Somebody probably sat down and did the math that said that if they only produced part of the Shahed then they could produce more units and therefore expend more Ukrainian ammunition. That’s the point of these things: to waste expensive Ukrainian ammunition, Patriot missiles ideally. To pull that off the drones need to be just threatening enough to demand a response. In that context wasting resources to build decoys makes perfect sense.
We can expect the Shahed swarm to grow in the coming months. Ukraine, however, seems to be dealing with them admirably. Ukraine disabled 95 of the 188 Shahed drones through electronic warfare. That number is only getting higher. There may soon be a time when the Shahed is rendered obsolete.
Ukrainian Prosecutor General's Head off the Department of Combating Crimes Committed in Conditions of Armed Conflict, Yuri Bilousov, reported on November 1 that Russian forces have executed at least 109 Ukrainian POWs since the beginning of the full-scale invasion in February 2022 and that Russian forces have intensified the number of POW executions they commit in 2024.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
Why do you think Ukraine used such an eclectic strike package in Crimea?
Join the conversation on /r/TheNuttySpectacle!