The Peanut Gallery: Kremlin Authorities Cave to Rioters - Release Several Dozen Hostages to Disperse Crowd.
January 17, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Your daily dose of unfounded speculation.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Howdy Folks,
Nope, still not about F-16s. I’ve set my conditions: the Kremlin must demonstrate the ability to consistently drop glide bombs on Krynky before I’m willing to admit that supposition is incorrect. That hasn’t happened.
Today’s correction has to do with a flippant comment I made on January 15th regarding ice along the Konka River impeding traffic of Ukrainian supplies to Krynky. I was wrong to call bullshit--turns out, I don’t know nothing about meteorology. This guy does, though. He says the Konka is seeing significant icing over, and that the Dnipro will soon experience similar problems.
This is important because ice along the Dnipro can interfere with Ukraine’s ability to deliver supplies into Krynky. Falling into the cold water and freezing to death is obviously a threat, though this is war and threats are to be acknowledged (not avoided).
The real problem is the ice, which can complicate logistics while under hostile enemy fire. Ice shards can damage the propellers of landing craft and make landing of heavy equipment impossible.
Special thanks to /u/NitroSyfi for the call out. At the end of the day, none of us know what the hell is happening, so it’s only through our collective pooling of experience that we can maybe, possibly, get a hint of what is going on. Please, everyone, if I am wrong, please speak up in the comments. By doing so you will improve /r/TheNuttySpectacle.
For /u/NitroSyfi’s contribution I award them the flair Probably Correct About Planes. May they wear it with pride.
Significant protests erupted in Baymak, Bashkortostan Republic, following a Russian court’s guilty verdict for a prominent Bashkort activist, prompting a swift Russian government response as well as backlash from the Russian ultranationalist community.
Woah! That’s a spark.
Several thousand people rioted in Baymak today in outrage at Fail Alsynov’s arrest. The charges are bullshit, obviously. Apparently this Alsynov fella called some other group of people ‘Black’ and that somehow means he deserves four years in a Russian prison. Seems excessive to me, but whatever floats the Kremlin’s boat.
The problem is this dude was a prominent member of the significant Bashkort minority. His people turned out in the thousands—ISW estimates somewhere between 2k-4k took to the streets. Obviously the Kremlin cracked down hard with non-violent methods, yet the protest only seemed to dissolve once the local authorities agreed to release the 20-40 people they’d detained.
This is significant because it implies the mob is highly organized, relatively speaking. Its leaders can disperse the protest at will, meaning they have respect and recognition by the community, so there is a semblance of a hierarchy. The question we’re all waiting on now, I suppose, is whether the protests’ll continue into tomorrow.
The Russian ultranationalist community will likely concretize xenophobia and insecurities about Russia’s ethnic composition as key shared principles within the community in 2024, as Russian ultranationalists continue to seize on incidents involving migrants and non-ethnic Russian groups to call for anti-migrant policies and express growing hostility towards non-ethnic Russians in Russia.
Naturally the Russian ultranationalists seized upon these protests as further validation of their xenophobia.
See, the problem playing the Hard Right is that they’re an inherently exclusionary bunch, and in a country as big as the Russian Federation, that doesn’t exactly work. “True Russians”, whatever the fuck that means, typically equals a handful of cities and Oblasts, so why they think they have claim to Ukraine is anyone’s guess.
I swear to God, the Kremlin’s reason for this war has somehow gone from, “We’re going to liberate Ukraine from the Nazis,” to, “Blood alone moves the wheels of history!” These people are a nation of hypocrites.
Widespread Russian milblogger complaints about an Uzbek community leader in Russia prompted the Russian Investigative Committee to open a criminal investigation, suggesting that the Russian government may feel increasing pressure to respond to milblogger demands as the ultranationalist information space coalesces around xenophobic and anti-migrant ideals.
The Kremlin is growing increasingly responsive to the milblogger community as the general Russian population appears to turn against them. Declining approval for the war, combined with the two protests over the last four months (today and the Caspian pogroms), there’s an increasing resistance by the Russian people towards Putin’s war.
Xenophobia and nationalism might just be Putin’s best bet for retaining power, but in doing so he risks ripping his empire apart.
A Ukrainian intelligence official reported that Russian forces lack the necessary operational reserves to conduct simultaneous offensive efforts in more than one direction in Ukraine.
Translation: Russia can do one thing at a time. If they’re active in one area, that’s likely all they’re focused on.
Ukraine posits Russia’s current focus is gearing up in Kup’yans’k for another offensive, which, if they’re stupid enough to attempt, will fully occupy their attention well into March. It’s likely meant to coincide with Purin’s farcical election, perhaps climaxing with a victory / or / big-ass missile barrage the day before Russians go to the polls.
Putin demonstrated time and time again that he cares more about optics than long-term military progress.
Ukraine successfully employed a Ukrainian-refurbished hybrid air defense system (FrankenSAM) for the first time.
Woot! The FrankenSAMs are out to play! These things integrate Soviet AA with NATO ammunition, easing pressure on a finite, depleting resource: S-300 missiles. Because the West sure as fuck aren’t going to build those things.
Germany and France announced additional military assistance to Ukraine on January 16.
And they’re big commitments.
Germany supplied $5.9 billion in military assistance throughout all of 2023. Today Schultz pledged $7.63 billion. Fuck yeah, Deutschland.
France, meanwhile, donated a whopping forty Storm Shadow missiles, along with “several hundred bombs,” whatever the ominous fuck that means.
The threat of US secondary sanctions is reportedly having a large-scale effect on Turkish-Russian financial ties.
Contrary to what Putin was hoping, it seems the West is solidifying. Germany just ramped up their year-on-year commitment, France, the UK, and most of Eastern Europe are showering Ukraine in aid, and the US is putting the screws to Putin’s wallet.
Good. These are all good things. Now if Biden manages to jam through an aid package before February I will be overjoyed.
Russian Health Minister Mikhail Murashko confirmed that Russian authorities have deported over 2,100 Ukrainians, including 500 children, to Russia for medical reasons in 2023.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this to an end.
'Q’ For the Community:
/r/TheNuttySpectacle can have two pinned comments. What would you like to see as the second one?
How will these protests play out over the next several days?
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