The Peanut Gallery: Twelve Days, Thirteen Planes - Ukraine Shoots Down 4.3% of Putin's Sukhoi Fleet in Two Weeks
February 29, 2024
Welcome to the Peanut Gallery! Today Storyteller’s feeling much better. Thank you for all your well wishes.
Please remember that I know nothing.
Ukrainian forces downed three more Su-34 fighter aircraft in eastern Ukraine on February 28 and 29.
Ukraine's military said on Thursday it had shot down three more Russian Su-34 fighter-bombers, the latest successes it has reported against Moscow's air force.
"After successful combat operations against an enemy aircraft in the night on Feb. 29, two more Russian aircraft were destroyed: Su-34 fighter-bombers in the Avdiivka and Mariupol sectors," Army chief Oleksandr Syrskyi said on the Telegram messaging app.
Russia, which began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine two years ago, did not immediately comment on Syrskyi's remarks. Reuters could not immediately verify his comments.
The Ukrainian military said last week that Russia had lost six warplanes in three days.
Hot damn! I can’t believe I get to start one of these with next-to the exact same headline! I love it when my bullshit hopes become reality. Today it’s planes falling out of the sky...tomorrow can it be Putin’s head on a spike? Like am I allowed to do that? Have we reached the collective psyche that it’s acceptable for me to publicly call for the death of this obvious cancer? Like a, “Somebody get a rope!” sort of thing? The man threatens to nuke us daily. We know he’s personally committed murder. I feel like it’s justified.
We’ll have to see if I get banned. You can always reach me at Storyteller@NuttySpectacle.com.
In the meantime—thirteen Sukhois falling out of the sky! Lord above that’s impressive. Well done, Ukraine...just...wow. They’ve maintained a one-a-day rate for two weeks straight.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported that Ukrainian forces have downed 13 Russian aircraft since February 17.[30] The International Institute for Strategic Studies previously estimated that Russia has roughly 300 various Sukhoi fighter aircraft, suggesting that the impact of losing 13 aircraft in almost as many days, and possibly some of their highly trained pilots, is not negligible for the Russian military.[31] Ukrainian forces have also downed two A-50 long-range radar detection aircraft in 2024 so far.
Like I cannot overstate how devastating these losses are for the Russian Federation. Ukraine shot down 4.3% of Russia’s Sukhoi fighters in two weeks. Two weeks. Are we still operating under the assumption that these are all thanks to pop-up Patriot batteries? Like did Ukraine just park a Patriot system twenty kms from Avdiivka and spend the next two weeks knocking down jets? Is that what happened?
Worse (for Moscow), 300 is total Sukhoi air frames, not operational craft. Recall our conversation the other day: aggregate numbers aren’t operational numbers. There are typically extended maintenance cycles baked into the Sukhoi’s operation schedules, cycles which, if skipped, will run the fleet down even more over the long run. The loss of 4.3% of Russia’s bomber fleet is a big deal (two weeks), but that these were the most combat capable has to hurt even more...also the pilots. We can’t forget about the pilots.
In the olden days horsemen—knights and the like—would typically bring multiple horses on campaign. They were rich enough, and switching horses when one got tired was standard practice. We think of them as one-horse-one-man sorts of relationships...but yeah no. Horses were as replaceable as cars. It sucked when you lost one, most can’t replace one immediately, but the best of us do it professionally so they get lots and lots.
This metaphor got away from me. My point is that NASCAR is a dumb sport.
Ukrainian officials are reportedly concerned about the possibility of significant Russian territorial gains in Summer 2024 in the event of continued delays in Western security assistance.
Suck my dick, Mike Johnson. You stupid mother fucking piece of shit. Fuck you. Fuck your Mom. Fuck your Dad. Fuck your dog, son, and your smug fucking face. Fuck you, Mike Johnson, and fuck your couch.
Alright! I feel much better now that I’ve gotten that off my chest.
Good news! Rumors are that Johnson will take up Ukraine aid funding as “soon as the government is funded.”
The GOP is fucking falling apart right before our eyes, ladies and gentlemen. McConnell resigned the other day—y'all see that? McCarthy’s gone. Half the old guard vanished...there’s really nothing left of the Republican Party. It’s mostly just an extension of Trump these days, more tumor than elephant.
Hell, Mike Johnson is facing an insurrection within his own party over the hint of compromise. It’s absolutism all the way—utterly incompatible with our reality. These people can’t govern, because either the government shuts down, or Johnson pushes forward a funding package cosigned by the Dems. By itself that should split the party, and if not that then the discharge petition should do it.
Russian President Vladimir Putin used his February 29 address to the Federal Assembly to attempt to convince the Russian public that his next term as president will be defined by Russian military success in Ukraine but not at the expense of stagnating or decreased social and economic welfare.
Putin says as he bans gasoline exports for six months. Action to words. Three more weeks until the election, then he can stop caring. The offensive can stall, the bombing runs stop, the army and country rest. Then around the end of April he can launch a 2nd Mobilization and prepare for a potential June-July summer offensive. Somehow.
Honestly I don’t believe Putin is thinking that far ahead. ISW says they’re seeing signs of it, though, so we best take the warning seriously.
Putin emphasized the Kremlin’s domestic focus on 2024 as the “Year of the Family” to address Russia’s ongoing demographic crisis during his Federal Assembly address.
Hehe: ‘Demographic Crisis.’
I don’t know if ‘Crisis’ quite covers it. Fetal alcohol syndrome and Soviet-era lead pipes nuking fertility is a crisis. This is more...an apocalypse? Yeah, Demographic Apocalypse feels more accurate. What else do you call a population in terminal decline engaging in total war while actively enslaving its immigrants?
Putin did not respond to the February 28 request from the Congress of Deputies from pro-Russian Moldovan breakaway region Transnistria, but this lack of response still affords the Kremlin several possible courses of action (COA) at a later time.
At last! We have resolution on this story! It turns out it was a whole lot of nothing.
Sorry folks. No Russian dash to Odessa, or sudden breakaway vassal...just more hybrid warfare aimed at destabilizing Moldova. Hang in there Moldova. I've got a sneaking suspicion you’ll be made whole when this is all said-and-done.
Russian authorities in Moscow Oblast created “training programs” for people potentially considering adopting illegally deported Ukrainian children in Russia.[80] The program reportedly falsely conflates Ukrainian and Russian culture. The program reportedly tells participants that their main objective is to create a “second homeland” for Ukrainian children in Russia and that they will need to overcome “difficulties in international differences.” Participants of the training program must undergo interviews in which Russian authorities ask if they have Ukrainian friends and relatives. ISW continues to assess that the forced deportation and adoption of Ukrainian children likely amounts to a violation of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide.
Please give Ukraine what they need to bring this war to an end.
‘Q’ for the Community:
Three Sukhois in one day! Do you think Putin will keep slamming his fleet into Avdiivka? Or will he relent?
Join the conversation of on /r/TheNuttySpectacle!